- 19:15
By the last day of 2025, the Lebanese government was expected to have completed the disarmament of Hezbollah nationwide, following a decision made at a Cabinet meeting at the Presidential Palace on August 5. The official statement tasked the Lebanese Army with drawing up an operational plan to restore the monopoly of weapons exclusively to the state before the end of the year, covering the entities listed in the declaration on the cessation of hostilities.
The army’s plan, however, did not align with this timeline, due to both military and political considerations, and it did not include a clear deadline for completing the monopoly of arms. It outlined four phases, with the first phase taking place south of the Litani River. The army was expected to announce the completion of this stage so that the area would fall under full military and security control of the Lebanese state, effectively preventing any Hezbollah activity. The army command was then to signal the start of the second phase, covering the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers.
Hezbollah has stated that it is only concerned with the first phase and has not clarified whether it will halt its military and security activities south of the Litani. It has informed domestic and international actors that it does not intend to participate in the second phase and that no weapons will be handed over north of the Litani. The question now is how the government will respond to this reality, and how the army will act.
The government is awaiting a new report from Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal on progress south of the Litani River. The report is expected during the first week of the year.
If the first phase is confirmed, the army will have to move forward with the second phase between the Litani and Awali Rivers, setting a clear timeline for its implementation. If not, the government may be forced to act on its own. Such a step could trigger a political crisis even more serious than the current dispute between Hezbollah and the government’s presidency. The army cannot ignore Cabinet decisions but enforcing them by force carries the risk of confrontation with armed Hezbollah members.
The situation is further complicated by the U.S.-Israeli agreement, which is pressuring the government to quickly dismantle Hezbollah’s military and security network. Any delay could eventually spark an escalation in Israeli strikes.
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