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3. Lebanon: Real Estate Market Tied to Political and Economic Outlook

In the short term, the real estate sector mirrors the political and economic situation. Its prospects depend on how different political and economic scenarios unfold, with direct implications for property prices and overall market conditions.

A study by the Research and Studies Department of Bank Audi, published in September 2025, lays out three scenarios for the next twelve months: a positive scenario with a 55 percent probability, a moderate scenario at 30 percent, and a negative scenario at 15 percent.

In a positive scenario, such as the state gaining full control over weapons, real estate demand would rise sharply, pushing property prices up by at least 20 percent. The revival of mortgage lending would also act as a major catalyst for the market. Under a moderate scenario, conditions and prices are expected to remain relatively stable. By contrast, if a negative scenario unfolds, marked by worsening security, demand would contract, the number of properties for sale would increase and prices along with overall market activity would face downward pressure.

Real Estate Prices

According to the Bank Audi report, property prices rose during the first three months of 2025 before leveling off from March through September. Promising political developments early in the year, including the election of a head of state, the appointment of a prime minister and the formation of a government, gave some momentum to prices in the Lebanese real estate market.

Property prices rose by about 10 percent during the first three months of 2025. Overall, prices for small and medium-sized apartments remain 20 to 30 percent below pre-2019 levels, while the sale price of high-end apartments is now approaching its level before the crisis.

Rising Property Purchases

Real estate demand in the first half of 2025 has bounced back to the levels seen in 2022, despite ongoing challenges.

From January to June 2025, the number of property transactions reached 33,297, up from 16,390 during the same period last year. This is the highest level recorded since 2022.

Compared with the first half of 2019, transactions in 2025 are 34.1 percent higher, indicating a return to pre-crisis activity levels.