Gaza and Lebanon Wars: The Dawn of a New Middle East?
Philippe Abi-Akl 01/10 09:21 - Reading : 5 minute(s)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu handled the joint United States-French ceasefire initiative in Lebanon much as he did US President Joe Biden’s earlier call for a truce in Gaza. Although the statement was coordinated with Netanyahu and supported by several Western and Arab nations, he later withdrew his backing and omitted any mention ...
Amal, Hezbollah Open to Presidential Third Option, Eventually
Philippe Abi-Akl 24/09 09:30 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah was still recovering from the wounds inflicted by the Israeli cyberattack on its communications network when it suffered another devastating blow: the targeting of Dahyeh and the assassination of its highest-ranking security official, Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the elite Radwan Brigade, who was wanted by the US and France for the 1984 ...
Aircraft Carrier Roosevelt's Departure: A US Signal Against War
Philippe Abi-Akl 17/09 08:00 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Washington has announced the withdrawal of aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt from the region, an indication that it is firmly opposed to an expansion of the war between Israel and Hezbollah. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Hamas and Israel have both rejected President Joe Biden's ceasefire proposal, designed to prevent the conflict from ...
Lebanon’s Presidency Between Gaza Talks Failure and Southern Escalation
Philippe Abi-Akl 10/09 10:00 - Reading : 6 minute(s)
As Washington and other global actors push for a ceasefire in Gaza, striving to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas amid the devastating conflict that has claimed over 40,000 lives so far, tensions between Israel and Lebanon are dangerously close to escalating. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed his threat of military ...
Presidency Tied to Regional Dynamics Despite Quintet Efforts
Philippe Abi-Akl 03/09 08:00 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Is the stalled presidential election progressing in parallel with American pressure to cease fire in Gaza and establish a humanitarian truce, to be renewed as necessary, and a halt to military operations in southern Lebanon? This follows the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate and the foreseen return of US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon to ...
Gaza Truce Negotiations: Conditions, Interests and Calculations
Philippe Abi-Akl 27/08 09:02 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Have the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, currently taking place in Cairo, reached their final hurdle at the Philadelphi Corridor? This question arises as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed relative flexibility by accepting United States President Joe Biden's request for a partial withdrawal from the corridor during the ...
Regional Conflict: Iran and Hezbollah Placing Retaliation on Hold Unless…
Philippe Abi-Akl 20/08 09:04 - Reading : 5 minute(s)
Antony Blinken Benjamin Netanyahu Gaza Israel
On his ninth visit to the region since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation and the subsequent war and massacres in Gaza, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Sunday to deliver a message from the American administration to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. US efforts to secure a ceasefire through the Doha and Cairo ...
Al-Tabieen Massacre Undermines Peace Efforts
Philippe Abi-Akl 13/08 09:22 - Reading : 6 minute(s)
On the eve of the scheduled resumption of ceasefire talks concerning Gaza, Israel launched an attack on Al-Tabieen school in the eastern Gaza Strip, killing over a hundred displaced people in a single strike. This massacre is likely to impact the negotiations set to begin on the 15th of this month according to the American-Qatari-Egyptian ...
Lebanon-Israel Mediation: Before or After Settlement?
Philippe Abi-Akl 06/08 09:59 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Fouad Shokr Hezbollah Ismail Haniyeh Israel
The race between war and settlement is at its peak. Which one will prevail? Given the current situation on the ground, notably the declared positions of the Hebrew State and the Iran-led “Obstructionist (Moumanaa) Axis,” urgent evacuation advisories for foreigners and heightened security measures including the closure of some embassies in ...
Netanyahu Twists Facts, Stays Equidistant from US Presidential Rivals
Philippe Abi-Akl 30/07 08:30 - Reading : 5 minute(s)
Benjamin Netanyahu Golan Hezbollah
Benjamin Netanyahu had not yet finished his official meetings in Washington when the situation escalated on the Lebanon front due to a “stray” shell hitting a playground in Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights, resulting in the deaths of some 12 children. International efforts intensified to contain the situation and prevent the southern ...
A Timed Military Escalation Ahead of Netanyahu’s US Visit?
Philippe Abi-Akl 23/07 08:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Following a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv on Saturday, Israeli fighter jets launched an assault from the Nevatim Airbase (Negev) on oil and electricity facilities in the Yemeni city of Hodeidah. On Sunday, a Houthi official stated, "Israel made a serious mistake. We will retaliate in a strong and appropriate manner." Meanwhile, the American news ...
The Shiite Duo: No to a President Unless…
Philippe Abi-Akl 16/07 09:00 - Reading : 7 minute(s)
Since the beginning of the presidential vacancy on October 31, 2022, the Shiite duo (Amal-Hezbollah) has not taken any significant steps to expedite the election of a new president. Their actions have varied from casting blank ballots to voting for Sleiman Frangieh for the first time during the 12th session on June 14, 2023, during which Frangieh ...
Netanyahu's Washington Visit: Who Benefits Most?
Philippe Abi-Akl 09/07 07:30 - Reading : 6 minute(s)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming three-day visit to Washington scheduled for July 24 is among the most significant Israeli visits to the strategic United States ally. This visit is crucial not only because it occurs at a pivotal moment in their strong relationship – despite the Democratic anger against Netanyahu and readiness ...
Parolin’s Visit: The Ultimate Effort to Save Lebanon
Philippe Abi-Akl 02/07 08:04 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
As the region hovered on the edge of a serious escalation between Hezbollah and Israel that could set the whole Middle East ablaze, international efforts are intensifying to prevent such a potential disastrous conflict. The visit of the Vatican's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to Lebanon last week was dubbed the "ultimate attempt to ...
US Presidential Elections Delaying Lebanon Solutions
Philippe Abi-Akl 25/06 07:30 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Although US envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Lebanon didn't bring progress, it somehow eased tensions in the south and kept escalation within the rules of engagement. According to diplomatic sources, the parties’ ambiguous positions are attributed to the opacity surrounding the results of the upcoming US presidential election. The battle between ...
US and France Mobilize to De-Escalate Conflict
Philippe Abi-Akl 18/06 09:00 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Last week, the Western alarm, particularly from France and the United States, revealed a level of concern elevated to the point of genuine fear over the escalation of field confrontations between the Israeli army and Hezbollah turning into a full-scale war, which Washington has consistently warned about. Senior US officials have explicitly ...
Dialogue or Consultations… Presidential Election Is Yet to Materialize
Philippe Abi-Akl 04/06 08:30 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Jean-Yves Le Drian’s warnings fell on deaf ears among Lebanese officials. Neither his 2020 visit following the Beirut port explosion, when he warned of Lebanon’s demise, nor the recent statement he made during his last visit to Lebanon, succeeded to instigate any changes amongst the obstructive political forces towards reviewing their ...
Raisi’s Death and Regional Prospects: A Series of Open-Ended Questions
Philippe Abi-Akl 28/05 09:00 - Reading : 6 minute(s)
Despite various accounts surrounding the crash of the Iranian helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the incident brought the issue of succession in Iran to the forefront, pertaining to both the Supreme Guide and the presidency. While the issue of "succession" may not have been the cause ...
Presidential Election: US 'Shortlist' of 'Plausible' Candidates
Philippe Abi-Akl 21/05 09:06 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, who recently returned from Washington after consultations with her administration, reportedly carried a shortlist of highly qualified presidential candidates, carefully kept under wraps and numbering no more than a select few. These candidates are expected to meet political parties at a strategically ...
Specter of Chapter VII Behind Hezbollah’s Rejection of 1701 Amendment
Philippe Abi-Akl 14/05 09:30 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Israel's incursion on Rafah bears no resemblance whatsoever to Gaza’s military operation. Behind the facade of this so-called "limited operation" lie calculated political objectives aimed at securing a decisive victory, enabling Israel to achieve a ceasefire on its own terms, rather than those of Hamas. This unfolds amidst expectations ...
French-American Synergy and Imminent Regional Settlement
Philippe Abi-Akl 30/04 08:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Emmanuel Macron Gaza Hezbollah Israel
The statement issued at the conclusion of the Elysée meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Lebanese Army (LAF) Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun was capped with the assurance that "President Macron will guarantee follow-through on various points." Consequently, he dispatched Foreign ...
Concerted US-French Efforts to Temper Regional Fires
Philippe Abi-Akl 23/04 08:30 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
The Middle East is teetering on the edge of chaos, just like a dormant volcano ready to erupt at any time, threatening to wipe out entire nations and governments. International powers, especially Washington, are working tirelessly to quell the unrest, fearing the worst. Nonetheless, and despite Israel’s practices against the Palestinians, the ...
Suspicious Timing to Incite Strife in Parallel With Regional Developments
Philippe Abi-Akl 16/04 08:00 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
The recent surge of security incidents in Lebanon leaves no room for doubt: they mask a deliberate scheme aimed at destabilizing the country, and a conspiracy undermining civil peace, coexistence and national unity. The latest destabilizing incident was the kidnapping and killing of Pascal Sleiman, Lebanese Forces coordinator in the Jbeil ...
Gaza War: The Region’s Last Conflict Before a Major Settlement?
Philippe Abi-Akl 09/04 08:53 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
The region is on a tightrope, torn between the push for a diplomatic resolution and the prospect of a full-scale regional conflict. In other words, it is a race against the clock and the outcomes are still unclear. In this context, the prevailing outlooks that lean towards the former scenario are based on a series of related and pertinent ...
Will Hezbollah Be Given the Upper Hand in Lebanon?
Philippe Abi-Akl 02/04 09:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
While Resolution 2728 that called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was secured by non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, security officials from the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel and Hamas representatives have failed to reach a truce agreement following several rounds of negotiations in Doha. The resolution reads, ...
Stumbling Moderate Bloc Initiative, Firm Attachment to Taif Agreement
Philippe Abi-Akl 26/03 08:30 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
The Moderate Bloc's initiative for breaking the presidential deadlock suffered a significant setback from those who had initially blessed it. Despite widespread support from opposition forces, the initiative quickly stumbled over procedural glitches, including who should convene and preside consultation sessions, and who should ensure the ...
Will Gaza Ceasefire Breathe Life Into the Presidential Issue?
Philippe Abi-Akl 19/03 09:56 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Despite the failure of American, French and Arab attempts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza before the beginning of Ramadan, efforts are still underway for a truce, this time through a new US proposal that is awaiting Hamas’s response. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf stated in this regard, "We are seeking a ...
Netanyahu’s Ousting: A Crucial Step Towards a Settlement?
Philippe Abi-Akl 12/03 09:00 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Benjamin Netanyahu Hezbollah Israel
The growing local discontent with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exceeds that observed outside Israel’s borders, due to the endless internal rifts within his government and the string of failures in his performance since the Al-Aqsa Flood attack against Israel on October 7. Could his ousting become a much needed and unavoidable step? ...
‘Ramadan Truce’ in Gaza: How Favorable Is It for Lebanon?
Philippe Abi-Akl 05/03 10:00 - Reading : 6 minute(s)
Amos Hochstein Ceasefire Gaza Hamas Hezbollah
A meeting was held on Sunday (March 3) in Cairo between officials from Hamas, Qatar and the United States to discuss the Gaza ceasefire agreement. If Israel agrees to the demands of the Palestinian movement and if Tel Aviv obtains – under its conditions – a comprehensive list of the names of surviving Israeli detainees, the ceasefire would ...
Washington Seeking Ceasefire in Gaza Ahead of Ramadan
Philippe Abi-Akl 20/02 09:00 - Reading : 5 minute(s)
According to informed Arab circles, significant endeavors are underway to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza prior to the beginning of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan around March 11. Efforts are underway despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unwavering determination to pursue the war until all its goals are fulfilled, and despite ...