- 15:41
Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections are shaping up as a test of Hezbollah’s political standing at a moment of vulnerability, after the group suffered a major military blow in the 2024 war with Israel and faces mounting pressure from the Lebanese government’s pledge to disarm it nationwide.
Since the 1992 parliamentary elections, the Amal Movement and Hezbollah have largely commanded the 27 seats in the parliament reserved for Shia Muslims. The duopoly has left little room for alternative voices to be heard in the community, let alone elected, establishing an iron grip that Shia opposition activists hope to break in the upcoming elections.
A breakthrough by Shia opposition candidates could also threaten Speaker Nabih Berri’s decades-long hold on the presidency of parliament, a post traditionally reserved for Shia lawmakers. If a non-duopoly MP wins a seat, there is a chance they could be elected speaker.
As the vote approaches—tentatively scheduled for May amid talk of a postponement—This is Beirut spoke with Shia opposition figures about their plans, campaigns, aspirations, and challenges.
Intimidation and Pressure
Despite the material losses and reputational damage Hezbollah suffered from its war with Israel, Shia opposition activists continue to face major political and structural obstacles to mounting a serious challenge to the party.
Opposition candidates speaking to This is Beirut cited voter intimidation by Hezbollah at polling stations as a key challenge and a major factor in depressing Shia turnout, with only about half of the community’s eligible voters casting ballots in the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Ali al-Amin, the founder of the opposition Janoubia outlet, said that the state must properly administer polling centers with relevant security forces. “If I want to enter a polling center, I don’t want to feel that Hezbollah runs and controls it,” the political analyst said.
Amin said he had personally faced voter intimidation, stressing that those who attempt to vote against Hezbollah and Amal can face “real harm, harm that should not be underestimated.”
Pressure on opposition activists does not stop at the ballot box. Ali Mourad, who is preparing to run in the South III district encompassing Bint Jbeil and Nabatieh, said that activists in southern Lebanon—a bulwark of Hezbollah’s support—face unjust accusations of treason for opposing the party.
“If you run a small shop, nobody will buy from you,” he said, pointing to social pressure as one example of how dissent can be quietly punished. Mourad said these pressures have hampered his campaign, leaving him unable to rent office space and forcing his party, Tayyar al-Taghyeer Fi al-Janoub, to operate out of his home.
“There is no neutrality of the state, and this creates intimidation,” Mourad said, explaining that municipal buildings, schools and other public buildings in southern Lebanon are plastered with Hezbollah and Amal propaganda.
Mourad said he requests state security protection when meeting Lebanese officials during elections. He emphasized that physical intimidation is a challenge he and other Shia opposition candidates have long had to endure.
Taharror Movement president Ali Khalife, another Shia opposition figure preparing to run for parliament, told This is Beirut that voters considering casting ballots against Hezbollah risk losing social support systems they rely on. The Shia community depends on Hezbollah’s institutions, schools, and health care centers, at the expense of the community’s social and economic rights, according to Khalife.
Hezbollah’s Weakening Grip
The 2024 Hezbollah-Israel War has shattered the organization’s aura of invincibility as it faces tightening restrictions and political isolation. “The idea that [Hezbollah and Amal’s control] is solid and irreversible has collapsed, and restoring it seems impossible,” Amin told This is Beirut.
Jad al-Akhawi, who is considering a parliamentary run in the Baabda district, described the group as critically weak. “They're not in a situation where they can intimidate anyone. The people who used to kill are dead,” he said.
He heads the Lebanese Democrat Coalition, a party founded by Lokman Slim, the prominent critic of Hezbollah assassinated in mysterious circumstances in southern Lebanon. Prior to his murder, Slim stated in writing that Hezbollah and Amal would bear responsibility if he were killed.
“We have reached a point where we are living in zero fear,” Akhawi added. He explained that he has never requested state security protection ahead of the elections. Despite warnings from people concerned for his safety not to travel to southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, Akhawi stressed that he continues to organize and meet people in these areas. Even in the face of such risks, he said, “I am convinced of continuing.”
Amin, for his part, cautioned that a change in the Shia community’s beliefs will only take the Shia opposition movement so far; these beliefs must translate into votes at the ballot box. “At the core of this issue is whether voters feel that the state has returned,” the analyst said.
“If Shia voters do not feel this, I believe there will be no change in the elections,” he added.
Emerging Opportunities
Despite systemic and structural obstacles, opposition activists believe an increasing segment of the Shia community has become receptive to messaging critical of Hezbollah.
Khalife explained that his campaign is targeting the Shia community’s youth, a group that, he argued, is more open to his ideas. “Young Shia are less ideologically attached. They are not convinced by Wilayat al-Faqih or Iranian hegemony. They want to live like other Lebanese youth—Sunni, Christian, Druze,” he said.
“This youth is also more open to peace agreements with Israel because they understand that stability brings economic and social benefits,” the activist added.
Meanwhile, Akhawi argued that the Shia community is increasingly recognizing that Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining its arsenal does not serve its constituents’ interests.
Khalife said Hezbollah’s military failures have created a growing conflict between the organization and the Shia community. “People have endured war, economic collapse, and insecurity. That opens the door for a new political alternative,” he said.
Akhawi added that if the Lebanese state accelerates Hezbollah’s disarmament north of the Litani River before the parliamentary elections, more Shia voters would be willing to support opposition candidates due to reduced intimidation at electoral sites. However, he cautioned that disarmament alone would not be enough.
“We have to remember that Hezbollah is not only about its arms, but also about the institutions,” he said. Akhawi explained that Hezbollah’s continued control over essential state services and southern Lebanon’s social fabric would still drive voters toward the group even if it were disarmed.
Hezbollah’s opponents have greater opportunities in districts with greater sectarian diversity, where political power is shared among parties, than in mostly Shia districts long controlled by Hezbollah and Amal, Amin said.
He added that the Shia community in the districts with a mix of Christian, Druze and Sunni parliamentary seats will be more receptive to opposition messaging and less affected by voter intimidation than voters in southern Lebanon.
In mixed districts such as Baabda, Zahle, Jbeil–Keserwan, Beirut II—the western half of the capital—and the Western Bekaa, “change could realistically lead to the election of between four or five Shia opposition MPs, at a minimum, under current conditions,” Amin said.
He said that if conditions improve slightly by election time, this number could increase.
Timing Could Tip the Scale
The mechanism of diaspora voting in the elections could prove a decisive factor in the vote and whether it is held on time. Parliament Speaker Berri, who heads the Amal Movement, has blocked in the legislature a proposed amendment to the electoral law to allow Lebanese expatriates to vote abroad in their districts of origin.
Instead, Berri and Hezbollah have pushed for the diaspora vote to be limited to six seats specifically created for expatriates voting abroad, as called for by the 2017 electoral law, but never implemented. In the 2018 and 2022 elections, Lebanese residing in foreign countries could cast ballots for their home districts. The parliamentary deadlock on diaspora voting could lead legislators to push back the date of the parliamentary elections, as they did in 2013, with the voting delayed by four years.
Amal and Hezbollah believe that allowing Lebanese votes from abroad in all 128 parliamentary seats could disadvantage their electoral chances. Shia opposition figures look to such a diaspora voting mechanism as a pathway to success.
Akhawi told This is Beirut that he would only run if the diaspora voting amendment is passed in parliament. Without such action, he said that it would be “nearly impossible” to compete against Hezbollah and Amal.
He added that Hezbollah opposes delaying the elections, arguing that the group is already weakened and risks losing further ground. “If the elections don’t happen on time, they know they will lose a lot,” the activist said.
Khalife told This is Beirut that a postponement of the elections could help Shia opposition groups. “More time could allow the opposition to prepare better. If postponement increases our chances to make change happen, we will use that time,” he said.
Unified or Split: The Opposition Dilemma
A key question ahead of the parliamentary elections is whether Shia opposition candidates will form a unified front or run separately in their respective districts, potentially splitting the vote.
Akhawi said he would not run on a joint slate with other opposition candidates in the Baabda district for one of its two Shia seats. While this could split the vote, he argued that candidates should preserve their distinct political identities and align only with those who share their values, warning that a unified list could turn the Shia opposition into a monolithic movement.
Meanwhile, Mourad—who is preparing to run for one of the three Shia seats in the South III district—urged flexibility and unity within the opposition to Hezbollah. Still, he warned that alliances should only be formed with groups that support Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Khalife, who is contesting the lone Shia seat in the Jbeil–Keserwan district, said that he is open to cross-sectarian alliances with parties running for other seats, but only if they are built on shared values and not for electoral calculation.
“If we cannot form a principled coalition, we prefer to continue building our political project, even if electoral success has to wait,” he said.
Akhawi urged Christian, Sunni, and Druze parties opposed to Hezbollah to back the Shia opposition rather than align with Amal or Hezbollah for tactical electoral calculations. “You can’t keep asking where the liberal Shia are. We are here,” he said.
He added that Lebanese Forces (LF) candidates will likely support Shia opposition figures in several districts, including Baabda and Jbeil. “They are going to be obliged to help us,” he said. Such support, however, would be conditional, limited to candidates who strongly back Hezbollah’s disarmament and have no alignment with it or Amal.
Mourad also said he believes the LF will support the election of Shia opposition candidates, provided it does not come at the expense of a Christian seat. He also urged Druze parties and the Kataeb Party to back Shia opposition candidates, stressing that their support is essential.
Amin echoed that view, insisting that the status quo cannot be treated as a strictly Shia issue. “No one can say, ‘This is a Shia problem; let the Shia deal with it,’” he said, arguing that change in the Shia political landscape depends on shifts at the national level.
Breaking the Duopoly
If the Shia opposition manages to break through and win parliamentary seats, it could challenge Berri’s grip on the presidency of the parliament, a post reserved for Shia MPs that the Amal Movement leader has held since 1992.
“I am sure we will see a new speaker [of the parliament], whether he comes from the opposition or from another camp,” Amin said, adding that even a foothold for the opposition in parliament would be enough to alter the political equation.
For the Shia opposition, success is not just limited to winning seats, but to breaking the logic of monopoly that has allowed a single camp to claim exclusive ownership of Shia votes for decades.
“The parliamentary elections in themselves are not the objective. It is only one step within a permanent political project,” Khalife said.
“We are not here for a temporary electoral moment. We are here to build something that lasts,” he concluded.
Comments