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3. Basket – 2027 World Cup: Qatar Break the Streak, Lebanon Fall Back into Their Old Ways

Four days after snatching a knife-edge win in Doha, Lebanon let slip a game they had in their hands in Zouk Mikaël. Beaten 86-83 by a Qatar side ranked 83rd in the world, Ahmad Farran’s men conceded their first home defeat in the Qualifiers since 2019… and handed the Qataris their first win against Lebanon in ten years.

On Sunday evening at the Nouhad Nawfal Sports Complex, everything seemed aligned for another quiet night: a full arena, a fiery atmosphere, an opponent already automatically qualified for the 2027 World Cup and presented as the group’s small underdog. Lebanon started seriously, put the ball inside, found rhythm in transition and immediately imposed their game.

The first quarter went their way: aggression on the passing lanes, a few defensive stops turning into easy baskets, decent accuracy from mid-range. Lebanon led, managed the rotations and gave the impression of controlling the tempo. At half-time, the gap was not huge but big enough to install a kind of comfort: ahead on the scoreboard, carried by their fans, Lebanon seemed to have their hands on the game.

That is precisely where the problem started. As too often, as soon as the Lebanese team thought they had the game under control, they relaxed. One dribble too many, a telegraphed pass, a late defensive transition… and the opponent rushed into the gap. This time, it was Qatar that punished them.

The third-quarter blackout

Coming back from the locker room, the setting changed. Qatar returned with a clear plan: ramp up the pressure on the ball-handler, cut off the first options and attack the rim without any complex. The visitors strung together a mini-run, capitalising on two consecutive turnovers and avoidable fouls. Lebanon answered in spurts, but no longer controlled anything.

Progressively, the third quarter turned into a nightmare: forced shots at the end of possessions, abandoned rebounds, communication falling apart. Qatar imposed their physicality in the paint, scraped second chances, helped themselves to “gift” lay-ups. The score flipped, then took off. With 1:18 left in the period, Abdulrahman Saad’s three-pointer felt like a slap in the face: +8 for Qatar, who would never let go of the lead again.

In the fourth quarter, Lebanon went all in. One stop, a three-pointer, a successful drive, the arena woke up, the gap shrank. You could think pride would end up doing the job. But every time the hosts came back within reach, a useless foul, a bad read or a rushed shot gave the Qataris some breathing space again. On the last possession, Wael Arakji had the shot to force overtime: the ball hit the rim and bounced out, a symbol of a wasted evening.

Goodwin, a fully assumed floor general

On the other side, one man held the helm from start to finish: Brandon Goodwin. The Qatari point guard, already brilliant in Doha, put up a XXL stat line in Zouk Mikaël: 25 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals, all with ice-cold composure in the hot moments. Able to alternate between drawing the defense and passing or taking responsibility himself, he dictated the tempo, punished every defensive late rotation and put his teammates into orbit.

Next to him, center Alen Hadzibegovic dominated in the air, with an authoritative double-double (14 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists). Present as a shot-blocker, solid on the defensive glass, valuable in screens, he imposed his size and mobility on both ends of the floor, exactly where Lebanon lacked consistency.

“It’s my third time against them, every second is tough, we just stayed focused,” Goodwin summed up after the game. They stayed focused for forty minutes. Lebanon did not.

Numbers that sting

The stats sometimes hurt more than a speech. Thirteen turnovers for Lebanon, just like in the first game, and far too many cheap giveaways right when the game was on the line. From beyond the arc, shooting touch stayed in the locker room: barely more than one made three-pointer out of five attempts, with open looks missed at the worst possible moments.

On the other side, Qatar missed ten free throws, but compensated with constant activity on defense and four more blocks. In a game decided by three small points, that kind of detail makes all the difference. While the visitors were diving on the floor, contesting every shot and closing the paint, the hosts were wasting energy arguing calls.

A lesson in consistency after the Doha thriller

The most frustrating part is that the script had been written in red letters four days earlier. In Doha, Lebanon had already seen Qatar come back from very far, pushed by a red-hot Goodwin, before escaping with a 75-74 win thanks to a lay-up by Youssef Khayat 17 seconds from the buzzer. A warning without consequences then, turned on Sunday into a very real sanction.

Ahmad Farran is not hiding: a tough defeat at home, a performance far from the standards needed to win this type of game. The group is new, the automatisms still fragile, but that does not excuse everything. At this level, letting the mental effort drop, even for two or three minutes, is tantamount to giving away the game.

Dedric Lawson, for his part, put part of the blame on his own shoulders, admitting he did not step up in the key moments. But the issue is collective: a defense falling apart, poorly controlled rebounding, squandered possessions. It is not one missed shot that loses the game, it is an accumulation of small abdications.

Qatar already ready for 2027

Paradoxically, the team that does not need to qualify – Qatar, host country of the 2027 World Cup – is approaching these windows with an urgency and intensity that give food for thought. The Qataris are moving forward in their project, building a defensive identity, installing Goodwin as their leader and sending a clear message to the continent: even already qualified, they play every possession.

Lebanon, meanwhile, is still looking for its backbone around its key players. The talent is there, the experience too, the support of the fans does not fade. But as long as this team believes that a game is won at +5 at half-time or +3 with two minutes to go, it will remain exposed to this kind of setback. The story keeps repeating itself, and the opponent, for their part, forgets nothing.

Every time they think they have the game in hand, the Lebanese have the unfortunate habit of easing off. On Sunday, they were caught and then overtaken, at home, by a team that never stopped believing. So please, gentlemen, next time remember that in basketball nothing is ever won before the final buzzer. Because by constantly learning “the hard way”, one day it is no longer the opponent who punishes you… it is your own wasted talent.