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3. Lebanon under Scrutiny: Weapons and Army Moves!

Diplomatic sources spoke of cautious optimism regarding the situation in Lebanon, urging senior officials and the government not to backtrack on their commitments concerning monopoly on weapons and reforms.

Countries concerned with the Lebanese situation are awaiting the army’s first report, expected in the coming days, on the implementation of the plan to ensure weapons are exclusively in the hands of the Lebanese state. The focus is both on timing: whether the report will be released before the 5th of this month or be delayed; and on content, which is supposed to be discussed by the Cabinet before determining next steps.

These countries expect the report to show real progress in disarmament, documented with figures and geographic areas, and to include a scheme for the next phase. According to the government’s August 5 decision, the deadline to settle the weapons issue remains the end of the year. However, these countries are ready to show flexibility if they see genuine seriousness in addressing the matter, without concessions or hesitation. That leniency, however, will not translate into an open-ended timeline, but rather a reasonable extension not exceeding parliamentary elections.

According to sources, these countries have left the handling of the weapons issue to Lebanese authorities for now, to assess their seriousness. A review will take place at year’s end, when the Quintet (the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) will decide how to move forward. Israel is also monitoring the developments to determine its own course of action in Lebanon in coordination with the Americans.

Moreover, any positive progress on Hezbollah’s disarmament will accelerate the convening of an international conference to support the Lebanese army. The army’s tasks, especially south of the Litani River, would become far greater than they are today, as the coming weeks will witness a reduction in the role of international peacekeepers on land and at sea, due to UN budget cuts that have impacted UNIFIL. Discussions about a support conference for the army are ongoing between France on one side, and the US and Saudi Arabia on the other, though no date or venue has been set yet.

In this context, diplomatic sources reiterated their cautious optimism about Lebanon’s situation, urging top officials and the government not to renege on their commitments.

They expressed hope that Hezbollah understands that clocks cannot be turned back, nor can they be forced back by violence. The group must make pragmatic decisions that align with the vision of the Lebanese government, Arab states and the international community; decisions that could save it from suicide.