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3. Disarming Hezbollah Is Here, Lebanon’s Peace with Israel Is Next

Now that the leaders of Lebanon are certain that Israel and America would not shy away from using force against Iran when need be, and now that they are sure that the bark of China and Russia in the Middle East is louder than their bite, Beirut is finally moving on Hezbollah’s arms. Lebanon’s normalization with Israel will come next.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, always perceived as the bellwether of regional change, has said as much. For the first time since 2008, Jumblatt has uttered the phrase “disarming Hezbollah”. But unlike the common rhetoric that Hezbollah should be disarmed and animosity toward Israel maintained, Jumblatt went a few steps further.

Jumblatt said that the Shebaa Farms, on the border between Lebanon, Israel and Syria, is Syrian territory, and therefore Beirut should not claim it as a disputed land with Israel. With Shebaa Farms out of the way, the remaining 12 disputed border points between Lebanon and Israel can be easily resolved.

And since the Lebanese border with Israel will be demarcated, Jumblatt said that now is the time for normalizing Lebanon’s ties with Israel. The Lebanese should make sure to teach youngsters about the heroism of past generations in warring with Israel lest normalization erases the glorious past, according to Jumblatt. But whatever the school curriculum, the Druze leader sounded certain: Lebanese normalization with Israel is coming.

Since Israel has beaten the Islamist Iranian regime hard, Jumblatt has not been the only Lebanese politician to come out in favor of normalization with Israel.

Lawmakers close to Prime Minister Nawaf Salam are now drafting laws on how Hezbollah should surrender its arms to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), not later than March, perhaps calculating that it would look good for their reelection chances in the parliamentary election scheduled for May 2026.

If Hezbollah does not surrender their arms to the Lebanese state, Salam’s MPs wrote, then the state should order the military to take on the pro-Iran militia and force it to concede.

Israel’s strong military show in Iran is now paying dividends across Lebanon. For the first time since Lebanon signed on to a ceasefire that mandates the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Lebanese cabinet has taken up the issue seriously in this week’s meeting.

It seems that even Hezbollah has come to realize how much of a big farce “resistance” has been, especially given the cowardice of the Islamist Iranian regime in war.

Lebanon fought Israel for 13 months, between October 2023 and November 2024. After most of its leadership was decimated, its rockets and launchers destroyed, and its fighters killed or maimed, the militia’s late chief Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech in which he stood defiant, refused an unconditional ceasefire that Israel had agreed to, and insisted that Israel stop warring in Gaza too. A few days later, Israel killed Nasrallah.

As for Iran, the second day after Israel struck its generals, nuclear operators and reactors, and ballistic missile production and caches, Tehran reached out to Israel — through third parties — begging for a ceasefire. By day 12, the Islamist Iranian regime agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, without even thinking.

Many Hezbollah partisans now look at their 13-month steadfastness and compare it to Iran caving in in 12 days. 

Tehran is also not living up to its financial commitments, forcing Hezbollah’s illegal bank Al-Qard Al-Hassan to stop loaning or allowing withdrawal of deposits. Hezbollah rank and file are not sure about “resistance” or what’s in it for them.

Lebanon is marching toward disarming Hezbollah, demarcating borders with Israel, and shopping for a sweet peace deal with Israel, if any includes sweetening the pot of the country’s depleted treasury. The fact that Syria, now governed by a group of presumably repentant and reformed Al-Qaeda fighters, is racing Lebanon toward peace with Israel and the attraction of foreign investments is making Lebanon even more urgent to get on a peace deal.

Islamist Iran will need much more than a series of military defeats to Israel and Hezbollah’s current uninspiring and lacklustre chief, Naim Qassem, to stay in the game.

Hezbollah now looks likely to surrender its arms in a deal behind closed doors but will maintain its meaningless bombast about warring and “resisting.” 

The Lebanese should be optimistic but not count their eggs before they hatch. Anything could go wrong, and Beirut is well advised to stay focused on the task. 

A light can finally be seen at the end of the tunnel.