- 17:10
Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel has ramped up its operations in Syria, seemingly seeking to assert itself as the dominant player against Turkey, which is trying to fill the vacuum left by Iran’s retreat. It has carried out strikes on military positions of the former regime and pro-Iranian militias, expanded its presence in the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon with an almost permanent foothold and its leaders have openly advocated for Syria’s partition into autonomous entities.
One issue, in particular, has drawn attention, especially in the Arab press and among Turkish officials: the so-called “David Corridor.” The project is said to involve Israel linking southern Syria near the Golan to the country’s northeast. Is it a land route, a logistical corridor, or a buffer zone? What is really at stake?
In this context, it is important to note that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that he would not allow the Syrian Army to operate south of Damascus, insisting on the "complete demilitarization of southern Syria, including the provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suwayda," where a significant Druze community resides.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned against any harm to Syria’s Druze community, threatening military intervention if necessary. Last week, deadly clashes broke out between armed Druze groups and government-affiliated forces in southern Syria. The recently formed Suwayda Military Council had called for a decentralized, secular state. Moreover, a fighter from the council publicly pledged his allegiance to Israel in a video.
Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar described the new Syrian government as a "terrorist Islamist" regime, accusing it of mistreating the Kurds and seeking "revenge" against the Alawites, the minority community to which the Assad family belongs. "A stable Syria can only be a federal Syria that includes various autonomies and respects different ways of life," Saar stated.
In an interview with This is Beirut, David Rigoulet-Roze, a Middle East researcher with Iris, stated that Israel is "essentially seeking to establish a corridor linking the Golan Heights through Syria's Druze-controlled Suwayda region to the US base at al-Tanf, located along the Syria-Turkey border, and potentially extending into areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are predominantly Kurdish."
According to Rigoulet-Roze, this would essentially create a "southern buffer zone, mirroring the one established by the Turks in northern Syria." He asserts that the "alleged corridor aligns with Israel's strategy to secure its eastern border by controlling a key strategic axis, rather than pursuing true territorial expansion." He stresses that the main objective is to prevent the potential re-establishment of a route for Iranian supply flows to Hezbollah in Lebanon, or even to the West Bank.
A Partition of Syria
In an interview with This is Beirut, Riad Kahwaji, a security and defense analyst based in Dubai and director of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Institute (Inegma), argued that Israel "wants a weak or puppet Syrian government and prefers to be surrounded by autonomous religious entities to legitimize its existence as a religious state." He added that "Israel is seeking to capitalize on the current situation in Syria to seize new territories under the guise of creating security zones, which will be vital for its future negotiations." However, he stressed that "this plan does not necessarily align with the US strategy, which prioritizes the expansion of the Abraham Accords and normalization with Tel Aviv."
Furthermore, Kahwaji stated that Israel "would seek to establish a buffer zone in southern Syria, primarily composed of Druze, who would, in a sense, align with their counterparts in Israel and who would be loyal to the Hebrew state." He added, "It remains uncertain whether the creation of this buffer zone will have unanimous support among Syria's Druze. It’s still too early to predict how things will unfold."
Israeli-Turkish Proxy Conflict?
In this context, it is important to assess the relationship between Israel and Turkey, two key players in Syria. According to Riad Kahwaji, Israel seeks to "prevent Turkey from filling the vacuum left by Iran's withdrawal." He notes that the offensive by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which toppled the regime, was launched at Turkey’s initiative and backed by its training and funding." Turkey advocates for a unified state and opposes any form of Kurdish separatism. It is also worth noting that the Kurds have received US support since 2014 as part of their coalition against ISIS in northeastern Syria.
On January 6, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned against any partition of Syria. "Under no circumstances can we allow Syria to be divided, and if we perceive the slightest risk, we will swiftly take the necessary measures. […] We have the means to do so," Erdoğan stated.
Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, echoed a similar stance during his official visit to Erdoğan, where he spoke of "threats hindering the achievement of territorial unity in northeastern Syria" and advocated for a "joint strategy" with Ankara to counter security challenges.
Still, it would be premature to characterize the situation as an Israeli-Turkish proxy conflict through local actors. Rigoulet-Roze noted that "there is considerable uncertainty at the moment. While developments are taking shape, they remain fluid and undefined. It is impossible to predict the exact outcome, as the dynamics at play are often contradictory."
One thing is certain: Ankara and Tel Aviv have fundamentally opposing visions for Syria. A confrontation may not be imminent, but it remains a strong possibility.
Comments