- 17
- Feb.
- 2025
What will happen on February 18, the deadline for the truce extension? Probably not much. The Israelis won’t have fully withdrawn, Hezbollah will call for “resistance” and the international community will exert pressure to avoid an unexpected escalation. Yelling and threatening mobs will likely rush into the neighborhoods that, not so long ago, welcomed displaced people with brotherly warmth. The residents will be frightened, and some, frustrated, might make the mistake of repeating not the “Ain al-Remmaneh bus” incident, but rather the “motor show (by Hezbollah partisans) of Achrafieh.” In short, nothing truly new under the Lebanese sun—just the usual dance on the edge of a volcano.
Except that the course of history doesn’t favor Hezbollah and its allies. The recent demand from its Secretary-General, which places the responsibility for the Israeli withdrawal on the Lebanese State and Army, is, in this context, utterly absurd. Naim Qassem conveniently neglects to address who initiated the war, who caused the senseless destruction through an unnecessary conflict, and who ultimately pushed the Israelis into entering Lebanon.
As long as the war rhetoric, provocations and violent diatribes remain the norm, Lebanon will find no helping hand. Discussions abound about $12 billion in aid from financial institutions, billions more from Gulf countries and additional funds from the diaspora. Yet, these billions are contingent on Lebanon’s commitment to its international obligations, disarming Hezbollah and enacting key reforms. In other words, the prospect of Lebanese citizens lounging on piles of greenbacks is far from imminent. Even Donald Trump has made it clear that any military aid to the Lebanese Army Forces (LAF) depends on the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701. Poor troops, holding the country’s security together with sheer resolve.
Whenever a crisis erupts, the army steps in— on duty around the clock, seven days a week. Without the army, the daily sparks of unrest would have already ignited a full-scale explosion. In reality, the country is navigating a highly sensitive phase. For its leaders, the priority is to reintegrate the international and Arab fold while carefully avoiding the obstacles placed by pro-Iranian forces. It’s a high-stakes maneuver with no safety net.
Among the other critical dates approaching is the ministerial declaration, which will face the difficult challenge of steering clear of the term “resistance” —no easy feat. Then, there’s the funeral of the former Hezbollah Secretary-General, scheduled for February 23. Undoubtedly, this is expected to be yet another display of force by the “anti-everyone” camp. It remains uncertain whether the images from these events will unlock international aid or assist in the reconstruction of the South. As Stefan Zweig once wrote, “Nothing is more difficult to understand than someone who is destroying himself.”
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