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3. Israel’s Power Vacuum Dilemma

On December 2 Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Israel Defense Forces soldiers wounded in recent fighting in southern Syria. Their injuries followed a November 26 IDF raid on the village of Beit Jinn in southern Syria, an operation that left several Syrians dead and wounded a number of Israeli soldiers.

Netanyahu had a message for the press after he met the troops. “After October 7th, we are determined to defend our communities on our borders, including the northern border, and to prevent the entrenchment of terrorists and hostile actions against us, to protect our Druze allies, and to ensure that the State of Israel is safe from ground attack and other attacks from the border areas,” he said, according to a statement from his office. From Israel’s point of view, this is the rationale behind the IDF’s operations in Syria.

The Israeli Prime Minister also had a message for Syria. “What we expect Syria to do, of course, is to establish a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to the buffer zone area, including, of course, the approaches to Mount Hermon and the summit of Mount Hermon,” he said, according to a statement from his office. Israel’s moves are intended to reinforce the security of its population.

Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Shara’a spoke at the Doha Forum on December 6 and had a contrasting message. “Every step we take serves Syria’s interests and restores its important role in the region and internationally,” he said. “The world has opened up to Syria to benefit from its strategic location and regional influence in establishing stability.” He noted that the Israeli demand for demilitarization in Syria’s southern region is unlikely to foster security for either country. 

The demilitarization that al-Shara’a described is likely to create a power vacuum—one that, globally, has a poor historical track record. Whether it is cartels in South America moving into areas where the state is weak, or extremist groups taking over swaths of the Sahel in Africa, these systems lead to chaos. Power vacuums become filled with drug smugglers, gangs, extremists, terrorists, weapons smugglers, and human trafficking, which eventually deteriorates state sovereignty. 

The Middle East knows all too well the tragedy of power vacuums. When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, the Syrian regime brutally cracked down on the rebels. This led to the radicalization and exploitation of areas where government control collapsed. ISIS emerged from this vacuum, which spread from Syria to Iraq. Similarly, a power vacuum in Lebanon led to the rise of Hezbollah. 

Since October 7, Israel’s policy has focused on increasing pre-emptive strikes and maintaining an offensive posture on its borders. Under the current ceasefire, Israel controls half of Gaza and is expected to withdraw once Hamas disarms. The militant group is waffling on the requirement to disarm, indicating it will only proceed if Israel leaves, creating a Catch-22. In parallel, Lebanon’s Hezbollah is required to disarm under the ceasefire; however, the militant group has not complied. This has resulted in frequent Israeli strikes on the group, complicating government efforts to enforce disarmament.

A chaotic situation has also emerged in Syria. After the fall of the Assad regime, Israel began a wave of airstrikes on the country and pushed into a buffer zone along the border to fill the power vacuum. Once it was clear the new Syrian government was in control and backed by the Trump administration, Israel could have begun to pull back and enable a new mechanism for securing the border. Instead, Israel sought to prevent Damascus from deploying forces near the border, resulting in chaos.

The new government in Syria is trying to restore security and reduce the power vacuum. It is working with US Central Command and has absorbed some US-backed Syrian fighters who were based at Tanf. Meanwhile, Israel’s focus on offensive operations has created an arc of power vacuums along its borders, in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, and southern Syria, forcing it to create a new IDF division to secure the Jordanian border and contend with unprecedented smuggling from Sinai.

The power vacuum approach in Jerusalem appeals to policymakers because it makes adversaries like Hezbollah and Hamas appear weak while allowing Israel to maintain freedom of action. However, this is an illusion. Israel is being kept on alert at all times on all its borders, and the new policy could backfire in Syria. Israel might achieve better outcomes by working with neighboring countries to promote regional stability—an objective shared widely across the region after years of conflict. Even countries without formal ties to Jerusalem are signaling to Washington that they would welcome Israel adopting a new policy focused on engagement and peace. For that to happen, all of Israel’s borders cannot remain in a state of low-level chaos.