Pakistan has extended its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia in a surprise defense agreement that could reshape strategic alliances in both the Middle East and South Asia. Signed in Riyadh on September 17 between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the treaty commits both countries to mutual defense.
Officials in both capitals confirmed that the pact commits each country to treat any attack on one as an attack on both.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif added that Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if required. Analysts close to the Saudi royal court echoed that nuclear protection is “integral” to the deal.
What Is a Nuclear Umbrella?
The term refers to a security guarantee in which a nuclear-armed state pledges to defend an ally, potentially by using nuclear weapons in retaliation if the ally is attacked.
It is a form of “extended deterrence” designed to dissuade adversaries from aggression.
The concept is familiar from the Cold War, when the United States promised to shield NATO members, Japan and South Korea under its nuclear umbrella.
In practice, such guarantees are often deliberately ambiguous. They create uncertainty in the minds of potential aggressors about whether a nuclear response might be triggered, thus strengthening deterrence. But they stop short of spelling out exact scenarios, thresholds or command arrangements.
Pakistan’s Surprising Nuclear Power
Pakistan is one of only nine states in the world to possess nuclear weapons.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Arms Control Association, the country’s arsenal is estimated at around 170 warheads, roughly equal to India’s stockpile but far smaller than those of the United States and Russia, which each hold several thousand.
Islamabad has also developed a wide range of delivery systems, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft.
According to the Arms Control Association, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has traditionally been India-centric, aimed at countering New Delhi’s conventional military superiority.
Nuclear weapons are regarded as the ultimate deterrent in a rivalry that has triggered wars and repeated crises since independence in 1947.
Civil nuclear power is also part of the picture. According to the World Nuclear Association and the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, Pakistan currently operates six commercial nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of about 3.3 gigawatts, supplying 17-18% of the country’s electricity. But it is the military side of the program that now anchors Saudi Arabia’s new security calculations.
Why Does Saudi Arabia Need It?
For decades, Saudi Arabia has relied primarily on the United States for protection, purchasing advanced weapons systems and benefiting from US security commitments in the Gulf.
But shifting US priorities and regional turbulence have prompted Riyadh to diversify its defense options.
The September defense pact came just days after Israel launched a strike in Qatar that killed senior Hamas figures, sending shockwaves across Gulf capitals.
It also followed a short but bloody conflict in May between Pakistan and India, which claimed more than 70 lives.
Against that backdrop, Saudi leaders appear intent on ensuring that the kingdom will not be left vulnerable if regional hostilities escalate.
Saudi Arabia is also widely believed to have provided significant financial support for Pakistan’s nuclear program during its formative years.
Analysts Weigh the Risks
The announcement has stirred debate among defense experts. Some see the nuclear umbrella as a powerful deterrent, signaling to adversaries such as Iran or Israel that Saudi Arabia now benefits from a credible back-up to its conventional military forces. By raising the potential costs of aggression, the arrangement could strengthen deterrence and provide space for diplomacy.
However, others caution that the pledge may be more symbolic than practical. Pakistan’s nuclear command and control are tightly centralized in Islamabad, making it uncertain whether the country would be willing to risk nuclear retaliation on behalf of another state. They argue that the credibility of the guarantee does not depend on declarations but on operational readiness and political resolve.
There are also concerns about the broader impact on global non-proliferation norms. Although Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Pakistan is not, reliance on another country’s arsenal blurs the lines of the treaty’s intent and could encourage other states to seek similar arrangements, potentially fuelling new instability in an already fragile security environment.
This could also mark the first instance of a non-NPT-recognized nuclear-armed nation offering its nuclear deterrent as protection to another state.
Implications for the Nuclear Race
The Pakistan-Saudi pact adds a new layer to an already fragile security landscape. Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity but is widely believed to possess its own arsenal.
Meanwhile, Iran is expanding its civilian nuclear capacity through a deepening deal with Russia: Iranian officials, including the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) chief Mohammad Eslami, say Iran and Russia are set to build eight new nuclear power plants under existing agreements, as Tehran moves toward 20 gigawatts of nuclear energy capacity by 2040.
If Riyadh is now explicitly backed by a nuclear-armed ally, both Iran and Israel may feel compelled to harden their deterrent postures.
The deal also reverberates in South Asia. India, which maintains strong energy ties with Saudi Arabia, will be watching closely.
Although Saudi officials insist their relationship with New Delhi remains “more robust than ever,” the alignment with Pakistan could complicate the kingdom’s balancing act between two rivals.
Whether Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella proves to be a practical guarantee or largely symbolic reassurance remains uncertain.
Its credibility will depend on how convincingly Islamabad and Riyadh can demonstrate resolve and readiness.
If adversaries accept the arrangement as genuine, it could reinforce deterrence and lower the likelihood of direct attacks. If not, the risk of miscalculation may increase.
What is clear is that the pact marks a significant turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics, placing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at the center of Saudi Arabia’s evolving security strategy.
Comments