More than 15,000 deaths this summer in major European cities could be attributed to climate change, according to researchers in a preliminary study that has already been welcomed by other scientists.
“Focusing on 854 European cities, this study concludes that climate change is behind 68% of the 24,400 deaths estimated to be linked to heat this summer,” said a statement Wednesday from the two British institutes behind the work, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
They estimate that between 15,013 and 17,864 heat-related deaths this summer would not have occurred without global warming—figures that only reflect about one-third of Europe’s population.
It is the first large-scale estimate of the health impacts of a summer marked by record-high temperatures across Europe. Several heatwaves struck, and the season proved to be the hottest ever recorded in countries such as Spain, Portugal, and the United Kingdom.
The health impacts of heat are well known: worsening cardiovascular issues, dehydration, sleep disorders, with the elderly being by far the most at risk.
However, the authors cautioned that the figures should be treated carefully. Such rapid assessments, increasingly common in recent years, aim to give early estimates of climate-related mortality without waiting for full peer-reviewed studies with more robust methodology.
To reach their conclusions, the researchers modeled how much climate change contributed to this summer’s extreme temperatures. They estimated that without global warming, average temperatures in the affected cities would have been 2.2°C lower.
Cross-referencing this with past data on heat-related mortality, they concluded that climate change contributed to more than 800 deaths in Rome, over 600 in Athens, and more than 400 in Paris. Overall, more than 85% of the deaths were among people over 65.
“It only takes heatwaves being 2 to 4°C hotter for thousands of people to lose their lives,” said co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis at a press conference, describing heat spikes as “silent killers.”
But the study does not account for the actual observed excess mortality. Such figures are typically used to produce definitive mortality estimates—like the 47,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in 2023, calculated in a Nature Medicine study published a year later.
“It’s currently impossible to get real-time statistics,” admitted Friederike Otto, another co-author. But the estimates “are in the right range,” she assured.
Many outside experts praised the study’s approach, even warning it may understate the reality.
“The attribution methods used here are scientifically sound but cautious,” explained Akshay Deoras, an atmospheric scientist at a UK university, via the Science Media Centre. “The actual number of deaths could be even higher.”
AFP
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