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3. Where Is Hezbollah’s Arsenal Still Hidden?

Since the November 2024 ceasefire and Hezbollah’s crushing military defeat by Israel, the question of the pro-Iranian group’s arsenal has once again moved to the forefront in Lebanon.

Caught between international pressure, internal fragility and a government determined to reassert control over weapons, Hezbollah appears weakened. Yet its capabilities have not disappeared. The central question remains: where is its arsenal?

A Severely Reduced Stockpile

Lebanese media report that the war with Israel cost Hezbollah nearly 65% of its heavy strike force, particularly its long-range missiles.

The Israeli research center Alma, which monitors security developments in northern Israel, estimated that before September 2024, the group possessed more than 225,000 explosive projectiles, ranging from short- to long-range.

Today, estimates range between 40,000 and 65,000 units, mostly short-range rockets, according to Lebanese media. Israeli strikes destroyed hundreds of storage facilities and forced Hezbollah to dismantle more than 500 military positions south of the Litani River.

Alma offers an even harsher assessment, putting the number of short-range rockets at fewer than 10,000, medium-range missiles at about 1,000 and precision missiles at only a few dozen.

The group’s logistical infrastructure has also been severely damaged. Having long relied on the Syrian corridor, Hezbollah is now weakened by the collapse of the Assad regime and tighter controls along the Lebanese borders.

Areas of Deployment

Despite its reduced strength, Hezbollah’s arsenal remains spread across several strategic axes identified by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in its disarmament plan.

The first is South Lebanon, south of the Litani River, which served for years as the main base for short-range rockets, tunnels and underground depots. Joint operations by the army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have already led to the redeployment of more than 120 regular military positions, according to a UNIFIL statement on September 8. Yet some caches remain, and infiltration attempts continue to be reported.

Beirut’s southern suburbs are considered the nerve center of Hezbollah’s command and control. Last June, the area was struck in the largest Israeli raid since the ceasefire, an attack on a drone manufacturing and storage facility. The strike highlighted both the centrality of the southern suburbs to the organization and their vulnerability to air attacks.

The Beqaa Valley, particularly around Hermel, Baalbeck and Nabi Sheet, continues to serve as Hezbollah’s logistical heartland. According to media reports, it houses workshops for the production and storage of medium- and long-range missiles as well as drones.

Border crossings with Syria remain vital for resupply. In early September, the Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF) arrested a smuggler in Tell Abbas al-Gharbi and seized 12 RPG launchers and 12 projectiles. On August 19, Syrian security forces intercepted a truck carrying Grad rockets destined for Lebanon. These incidents confirm the persistence of smuggling routes and illustrate Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild its core stockpile.

Today, Hezbollah’s arsenal is fragmented, divided between residual depots in the South, logistical centers in the Beqaa and underground caches in Beirut. Its volume has sharply fallen, from hundreds of thousands of projectiles to only a few tens of thousands.

Exact numbers remain uncertain, as estimates vary depending on sources. However, what’s clear is the significant weakening of the pro-Iranian group.