In an article to the Telegraph on Sunday, former US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that Lebanon faces an existential choice: emerge from decades of war or again fall into civil conflict and terrorist domination. He argued that Israel’s strikes against Iran and its proxies following Hamas’s October 7 attack give Lebanon a chance to return to “normalcy.”
Bolton noted that Hezbollah has long ruled Lebanon from the shadows, relying on military force rather than public office, and that its power stems largely from Tehran’s support. “Without Iran, the terror group might never have existed,” he wrote.
Bolton highlighted that Israel’s post-October 7 operations, along with US efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, have changed the strategic landscape, but Hezbollah still retains significant military capabilities, as do Hamas in Gaza and, to a lesser extent, Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
In the Telegraph, the former advisor urged Lebanon’s government to finish what Israel started by disarming Hezbollah and forcing it to act as a political party rather than an armed organization. He cited UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which aimed to disarm Hezbollah and restrict arms imports to the Lebanese Armed Forces, but ultimately failed due to Iranian and Hezbollah defiance and Western indifference.
Bolton emphasized that UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, is widely seen as ineffective and will conclude in 2026. He called on Western nations to provide direct support to the Lebanese Armed Forces and civilian authorities, and for Lebanon to maintain close cooperation with Israel to secure southern withdrawal and Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“Seeing Lebanon reborn with a peaceful, democratic government, free from both Iran and Hezbollah, would be a substantial step toward true Middle Eastern peace,” Bolton concluded. “If Beirut and its international supporters shrink from disarming Hezbollah, we will simply end up where we were on October 7, and that cannot be permitted.”
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