Lebanon still has much to accomplish. Despite the government’s declarations, practical steps remain limited, leaving doubts about whether the country is honoring its commitments in the eyes of the international community.
This was the core message conveyed during Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus’ meetings with Lebanese officials. The points raised were familiar, yet necessary, as Lebanese leaders often require constant pressure to meet international expectations.
The margin for Lebanon’s demands is surprisingly narrow, especially in a diplomatic climate that offers little support. Militarily, the country is weakened by Hezbollah’s reckless adventures. Although the Hezbollah-led axis has faced severe setbacks, it continues to treat Lebanon as a base for its regional agenda, undermining state sovereignty, despite President Aoun’s recent efforts to assert authority and counter this narrative.
Lebanon’s claims are largely legitimate, including Israel’s withdrawal from five disputed points. Yet officials are aware that such demands are unattainable under current circumstances, as the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament remains unaddressed. For now, Lebanon has limited Hezbollah’s movements but cannot control its stockpiles, which continue to be frequent targets of Israeli strikes.
Meanwhile, Israel has signaled its refusal to renew UNIFIL’s mandate, effectively raising the stakes. This move serves as a warning: the southern border may no longer remain a peacekeeping zone, but rather a space where Israel seeks to impose security by force, sidelining international guarantees. Such a shift would be a serious setback for Lebanon, which has historically benefited more than Israel from UN presence since 2006, enjoying a buffer that limited cross-border incidents.
Ultimately, all parties in Lebanon know that time is not on their side. Setting conditions is no longer a luxury, especially after Hezbollah’s actions placed the country in a weakened military position, stripped of the ability to negotiate from strength. Despite Hezbollah’s rhetoric and social media campaigns, the reality is clear. Lebanon’s only viable path forward lies in advancing Barrack’s plan, which ensures not only Israeli withdrawal, but also lays out a framework for a comprehensive lasting solution.
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