With Iran’s power waning and its proxies humbled, regional normalization with Israel is accelerating once again. Syria appears to be on board. Lebanon, once central to the conflict, risks becoming a forgotten bystander.
There was a time when the idea of Syria normalizing ties with Israel would’ve been laughed out of every Arab capital. Not anymore. Damascus is reportedly engaged in serious discussions to join the Abraham Accords. Once-controversial deals, the Accords now seem like the Middle East’s new baseline. That Syria, of all countries, is entertaining the idea of normalizing with Israel by the end of the year should ring loud alarm bells in Beirut, because Lebanon, despite all its potential and historic ties to the West, remains incapable of taking decisive action and is drifting dangerously close to becoming irrelevant.
The Region Is Moving On
After October 7, many people quickly concluded that the Abraham Accords – a landmark diplomatic victory for the first Trump administration – had become obsolete, or at the very least, would be difficult to revive without new Israeli leadership. But two years on, those deals have proven resilient, even after Israel’s war in Gaza and the backlash it triggered. Not only did countries like the UAE and Bahrain stand by them, but the idea is now spreading and may potentially include the entire region.
The reality is that a new understanding of politics is gaining momentum. One that is more concerned with development, economics, trade and addressing domestic problems than on deflecting those issues by fighting Israel. Syria’s transformation didn’t happen in a vacuum. After years of civil war and total isolation, President Ahmad al-Chareh had two choices: either resume perpetual “resistance” against Israel or engage in the difficult task of diplomacy to revive his country. Chareh seems to have gone with the pragmatic choice of prioritizing reconstruction. Knowing full well that countries like Turkey can’t foot the bill, he has lobbied Gulf countries – especially Saudi Arabia – to vouch for him to powers that can actually make a positive difference, like the United States. To that end, Washington has been quick to reciprocate Syria’s enthusiasm and concrete actions, despite Chareh’s background as a former al-Qaeda member.
Meanwhile, Lebanon? Stuck. Still broken. Bleeding its youth. And debating whether Resolution 1701 applies south or north of the Litani. Lebanon is, as we speak, still hostage to Hezbollah, whose relevance is tied to a version of the region that’s quickly vanishing. We are in the era of the new Middle East, and all Arab leaders have started reading the map differently.
Syria did. The Gulf did. Even Qatar, a long-time supporter of Hamas, is recalibrating.
Syria’s Pivot Should Be Lebanon’s Wake-Up Call
The bitter irony is that Lebanon should have been first in line to receive investments and reconstruction aid. Lebanon still has a human capital base that is largely Western-educated, democratic and culturally closer to the West – and to the Gulf’s vision for the region – than Syria. The only thing missing is decisive action on disarming Hezbollah in order to restore the rule of law and truly stabilize the country, encouraging investment.
The Gulf is not a charity created to bail us out every time Hezbollah decides to commit strategic blunders. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf countries are nations with their own people and national interests to worry about. They’re not going to invest in countries where they don’t see any potential return on investment, and there is no return on investment in Lebanon while Hezbollah holds the leash.
Until now, the Lebanese government has talked about the need to disarm all militias and implement real reforms. It is saying the right things. But words won’t cut it anymore. If Beirut doesn’t act – meaning serious, visible moves to disarm Hezbollah, not just south of the Litani, and to restore state authority – then no one in Washington, Brussels or Riyadh is going to take it seriously.
A Final Chance?
Many have described the election of President Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s final chance. But now, our moment is slipping away. If Lebanon doesn’t get serious soon, it won’t just be behind the curve; it’ll suffer a worse fate. It’ll be out of the picture. Forgotten. Irrelevant.
The government’s actions so far resemble those of a cancer patient prioritizing a nose job over removing the tumor – Hezbollah.
The Abraham Accords are growing, not shrinking. Israel, despite everything, is proving to be a long-term player. The Arab world is thinking about ports, tech and energy corridors, not Kalashnikovs and Katyushas.
The new Middle East isn’t about glory through war. It’s about partnerships and coexistence.
Syria, of all places, seems to get that now. Lebanon should too.
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