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A thunderbolt for Marine Le Pen. The president of the National Rally has been sentenced to five years of ineligibility, effective immediately, and to a four-year prison term—two of which are suspended—in the case of fake jobs at the European Parliament. This decision, described as a “judicial earthquake,” disrupts the political landscape just two years ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Five years of ineligibility with immediate effect and four years in prison, two of which are to be served, in the fake jobs scandal at the European Parliament. This ruling, handed down today by the Paris Criminal Court, may well wipe out Marine Le Pen’s chances of running in the 2027 presidential election. It’s nothing less than a major upheaval in the French political scene.

A Judicial Earthquake

The Paris Criminal Court followed the public prosecutor’s recommendations, who had called for a severe sentence against Marine Le Pen and several senior officials of the National Rally (RN), found guilty of diverting EU funds to pay parliamentary assistants who were, in reality, working for the party. The ineligibility with immediate execution means that she cannot run in 2027, unless the sentence is overturned on appeal or by the Court of Cassation.

She was also fined €100,000. Her party, also found guilty, was ordered to pay €2 million, including €1 million in fixed fines, and to forfeit €1 million seized during the investigation.

At the Heart of the Scheme

After nearly two hours of reading the judgment, the court concluded that a “centralized, optimized system” had indeed been put in place to allow the National Rally (formerly the National Front) to “save money” by paying “fictitious” parliamentary assistants who were actually working for the party between 2004 and 2016.

Speaking of a “double deception” toward both the European Parliament and voters, the presiding judge, Bénédicte de Perthuis, emphasized that the scheme amounted to “circumventing the rules of political parties and democratic functioning.”

At the start of the hearing, with Marine Le Pen seated in a blue jacket in the front row next to party vice president Louis Aliot, the court quickly announced that the nine MEPs on trial were guilty of misappropriation of public funds, and the twelve assistants were guilty of concealment.

“It was established that all of these individuals were in fact working for the party, that their MEPs had assigned them no tasks,” the judge explained. “They moved from one MEP to another.” “It wasn’t about pooling the assistants’ work, but rather pooling the MEPs’ budgets” to “save money” for the party by being “directly financed by the European Parliament,” she added, as Marine Le Pen muttered her protest under her breath.

What Future for the RN?

Despite the severe punishment, Marine Le Pen retains her mandate as a Member of Parliament for Pas-de-Calais. The Constitutional Council considers that a sentence of ineligibility does not automatically result in the loss of a parliamentary seat unless the decision becomes final. However, she is expected to lose her position as a departmental councilor.

This case also opens the door for a possible 2027 presidential run by Jordan Bardella. “It’s not just Marine Le Pen who has been unfairly sentenced—French democracy itself is being executed,” said Bardella, president of the RN and widely seen as her likely successor.

Possible Appeals

Marine Le Pen announced that she will appeal. However, the immediate enforcement of the ineligibility sentence remains in effect unless suspended by the appeals court. A retrial could take place within a year, with a decision potentially landing just before the presidential election. If the appeal fails, a cassation appeal would still be possible, though time constraints may complicate her participation in the race. As for the prison sentence, it will be served under electronic monitoring. However, this will only take effect once all legal avenues have been exhausted.

A Turning Point for the French Far Right

These convictions—although appealable—raise serious questions about the credibility of the party and its political future. Doubts linger not only over Marine Le Pen’s prospects, but also her ability to take on new roles, including that of prime minister. According to some legal experts, the ineligibility may bar her from holding any public office, including the premiership.

Others argue she could still be appointed prime minister, as that decision lies solely with the president of the republic. If the Constitutional Council confirms a ban on holding ministerial positions, it could definitively shut the door on her ambitions for 2027—not just for the presidency, but also for the role of prime minister.