- 25
- Mar
- 2025
As Turkey grapples with a major political crisis, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan must also navigate a rapidly shifting regional landscape. The fall of Assad in Syria and the emergence of a new regime in Damascus present both strategic opportunities and challenges for Ankara. Balancing domestic unrest and geopolitical realities, the Turkish president is engaged in a complex and high-stakes maneuver – one that could determine not only his own political fate but also the trajectory of the Middle East.
The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and Erdoğan’s main political rival, has triggered an unprecedented wave of protests across Turkey. Accused of corruption, İmamoğlu denounces what he describes as a politically motivated attempt to sideline him ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Since his detention, tens of thousands have taken to the streets daily, undeterred by a harsh police crackdown.
The crisis has further weakened Erdoğan, already reeling from the loss of Istanbul and Ankara in the 2024 local elections. International criticism is mounting, pushing Turkey into deeper isolation on the global stage. Once seen as an unchallenged leader, Erdoğan now faces a resurgent opposition and a mobilized civil society – both of which are narrowing his room for maneuver in the regional arena.
İmamoğlu’s arrest is not an isolated incident; it reflects a broader crackdown on dissenting voices in Turkey. Over the past several years, Erdoğan has steadily dismantled democratic institutions – tightening control over the media, jailing journalists, and suppressing protests. This strategy of absolute control has helped him entrench his authority, but it has also fueled growing frustration within Turkish society.
The current wave of protests is the most significant since the Gezi Park movement in 2013. Back then, demonstrations erupted over a controversial urban development project in Istanbul, but the incident quickly evolved into a broader political uprising against Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism. Today’s mobilization is even larger and more organized, driven by an opposition that has managed to harness widespread public discontent.
Today’s protests have also been met with escalating police violence. Images of security forces using water cannons and tear gas against peaceful demonstrators have circulated globally, deepening Turkey’s isolation on the international stage. Criticism from the European Union and the United States has intensified, yet Erdoğan seems determined to press ahead with his crackdown – even at the expense of Turkey’s diplomatic standing.
Post-Assad Syria: A New Strategic Landscape
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 has disrupted the geopolitical balance of the Middle East. The new regime, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, promises a swift transition to stability. For Erdoğan, this transition presents a major opportunity: facilitating the return of the four million Syrian refugees in Turkey – an issue of critical importance to ease a Turkish population increasingly hostile to their presence.
However, Sharaa has reached a historic agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are largely controlled by the Kurds, allowing for their integration into the Syrian national army. This alliance complicates Turkey’s military strategy in the region and constrains Erdoğan’s options. The Turkish president now faces a critical choice: pursue diplomatic efforts to facilitate the return of refugees, or escalate military action against Syrian Kurds to bolster his nationalist leadership.
The fall of Assad also has significant implications for Turkey's foreign policy. Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Erdoğan has taken a firm stance against the government in Damascus, supporting rebel groups and hosting millions of Syrian refugees. However, this policy has also led to tensions with Russia and Iran, Assad's key allies. With the regime’s collapse, Erdoğan now has the opportunity to reposition Turkey on the regional stage, forging closer ties with the new Syrian authorities and playing a pivotal role in the country’s reconstruction.
Nevertheless, this opportunity comes with significant risks. The new Syrian regime is still fragile and grapples with several challenges, including the country’s reconstruction and national reconciliation. Erdoğan must tread carefully to avoid getting involved in an unstable situation that could jeopardize Turkey’s interests.
Diplomacy or Military Escalation?
The diplomatic path, backed by the US and Russia, would enable Erdoğan to meet the expectations of the Turkish population while stabilizing the southern border. However, this option could be viewed as a sign of weakness by his nationalist base, which is already dissatisfied with his handling of the refugee issue.
On the other hand, a military escalation against Syrian Kurds could rally his supporters, but it would risk a direct confrontation with Damascus and its allies. This security-driven approach could also heighten tensions with the US, which backs the SDF in their fight against ISIS, potentially further isolating Turkey on the global stage.
The Kurdish issue is another key factor in Erdoğan’s calculations. Turkey considers the Syrian Kurdish militias, particularly the YPG (People’s Defense Units), as a direct threat to its national security due to their alleged links to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), a group designated as a terrorist organization by Ankara. Erdoğan has already launched several military operations in Syria targeting the YPG, but these actions have also created tensions with the US, which supports the YPG in its fight against ISIS.
Following Assad’s downfall and the rise of a new regime in Damascus, Erdoğan may be tempted to initiate a new offensive against Syrian Kurds under the guise of counterterrorism. While this could rally his nationalist supporters, it also risks direct confrontation with the new Syrian authorities and their allies.
An Unstable Future for Erdoğan and the Region
Amid increasing domestic pressure and a changing regional landscape, Erdoğan faces a delicate challenge. Every choice, whether diplomatic or military, carries far-reaching consequences for his political future and the stability of the Middle East. A diplomatic approach could bolster his international standing, but may alienate his nationalist base. Conversely, an aggressive military strategy could escalate tensions in the region and deepen the already strained relations with the West.
Erdoğan’s political future and the region’s stability are closely intertwined. The Turkish president is walking a fine line, fully aware that each decision could determine both his political fate and the future of the Middle East.
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