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3. MBS's Diplomatic Gamble: Reshaping Saudi Arabia’s Geopolitical Role

Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Saudi Arabia has undertaken a series of diplomatic maneuvers that are redefining its role in the Middle East. As a key regional power, the Kingdom aims to position itself as an influential mediator, forge new strategic alliances and normalize relations with pivotal players. These ambitions align with Vision 2030, MBS’s comprehensive plan to diversify the economy and enhance the Kingdom’s global standing. But has his high-stakes diplomacy yielded tangible results?

MBS’s Diplomatic Ambitions: A Mediator in the Making

A central pillar of MBS’s foreign policy is Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a mediator in regional conflicts. Since assuming power, the Crown Prince has sought to manage regional crises in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, reinforcing the Kingdom’s status as an indispensable interlocutor for global and regional powers.

In Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition has been engaged in a prolonged conflict against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, a war that has long been a point of contention in regional political tensions. However, MBS has pivoted toward diplomacy, particularly by facilitating talks between various Yemeni factions. While the war is far from over, recent Saudi efforts focused on de-escalation, including indirect negotiations with the Houthis and initiatives to broker a long-term peace agreement.

MBS has also attempted to recalibrate Saudi Arabia’s alliances. Historically an adversary of Israel, Saudi diplomacy has taken a more open approach, particularly following the Abraham Accords of 2020, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. While Riyadh has yet to officially follow suit — especially in light of the October 7 attacks and ensuing regional tensions — the Crown Prince has signaled interest in establishing a pragmatic relationship with Israel. This strategic shift aims to counterbalance Iranian influence while fostering economic and technological partnerships.

Saudi Arabia and Iran: A Diplomatic Turning Point

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, long characterized by sectarian and geopolitical rivalry, have also undergone a significant shift under MBS’s rule. In 2023, a reconciliation agreement brokered by China marked a crucial milestone, allowing the two regional powers to restore diplomatic ties. “This initiative represents a turning point in Saudi foreign policy, which now aims to balance its historic alliance with the United States while moving closer to its regional neighbor to ease tensions that have destabilized the region for years,” said a security source.

"During US President Donald Trump's first term, MBS fully backed Washington’s maximum pressure policy on Iran to curb Tehran's regional influence," noted Bertrand Besancenot, former French ambassador to Saudi Arabia. "However, the Crown Prince quickly realized that the American security umbrella his country relied on was no longer unconditional, immediate or absolute, as it had been in the past," he added. This shift became undeniable after the September 14, 2019, attacks on Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, carried out by Iranian forces, with suspicions that cruise missiles were used. Although the Houthis claimed responsibility, international consensus pointed to Iran, yet the US chose not to respond with military action.

"Today, the relationship between the Kingdom and the US can best be described as transactional," Besancenot suggested. "Saudi Arabia is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on US oversight while ensuring continued American investment and military protection," he added.

Will the Crown Prince succeed in carefully navigating his economic diversification goals, geopolitical ambitions and global powers alignment?