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3. Pressure from Washington: Lebanon on Edge

When a US envoy speaks this bluntly, the game has changed. Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, did not hide his frustration with Lebanese officials’ handling of Hezbollah. He went even further, emphasizing that Washington no longer accepts Lebanon’s strategy of maneuvering and political jockeying, arguing that it has failed to achieve the necessary results. This firm message was reportedly conveyed during a meeting between Witkoff and a Lebanese figure in Doha.

But let’s step back for a moment — why is this happening now? The Trump Administration’s growing impatience with Lebanon isn’t just about Hezbollah’s military presence. It’s about a broader regional puzzle, where Israel, Iran and the US are all moving pieces on a chessboard where Lebanon has little control over its own fate. The Trump White House, known for its transactional foreign policy, appears unwilling to allow the Lebanese crisis to remain in limbo. And so, the message is clear: Lebanon must engage in direct, face-to-face negotiations with Israel, led by a civilian figure, while Israel will be represented by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer — one of Netanyahu’s closest allies.

The conditions outlined by Witkoff leave little room for ambiguity:

• No reconstruction in the South, the Beqaa, or Beirut’s southern suburbs until Lebanon settles with Israel. Residents of frontline towns will not be allowed to return to their homes in the meantime.
• Israel will maintain its occupation of five disputed points for at least a year and will only consider a broader settlement on the 13 contested areas if it aligns with Washington’s roadmap. However, it might withdraw from some of these points before Lebanon’s next parliamentary elections.
• Hezbollah will not only be prevented from keeping its weapons in the South Litani area but also its other areas of deployment, including north of the Litani and the Beqaa.

This is not just about Hezbollah or border disputes; it’s about Lebanon’s very ability to navigate its sovereignty in a region where external actors continue to shape its future. The message from Washington signals an end to the status quo: Lebanon is no longer allowed to operate in a gray zone where diplomacy is ambiguous and armed groups maintain influence.

But the real question is, can Lebanon even comply with these demands? The political class, fractured and weakened, is not able to make dramatic shifts without triggering internal instability. Hezbollah is unlikely to simply disarm without a wider regional realignment that includes Iran. Meanwhile, ordinary Lebanese citizens — already battered by economic collapse and political paralysis — are once again caught in the middle of a geopolitical chess game where they have no control over the moves.

However, in a surprising turn of events, Witkoff retracted his statement on Wednesday. His office denied issuing such warnings, attempting to downplay the significance of his remarks. Yet, despite this official retraction, the echoes of his words still reverberate through Washington. His statement has already fueled discussions in diplomatic and political circles, raising questions about U.S. policy in Lebanon and whether a shift is indeed underway.

The next few months will be critical. Will Lebanese leaders try to buy more time, as they have done in the past, or will they be forced into direct negotiations under US pressure? And if talks with Israel do happen, will they lead to a breakthrough or simply another temporary fix? 

One thing is certain: the Trump administration is no longer interested in waiting. Lebanon’s leaders may soon find that the era of maneuvering and delaying is over. The real question is, can they adjust before the pressure turns into something more than just diplomatic warnings?