- 18
- Mar
- 2025
Israel’s warning to unleash hell fire on Gaza if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages is no longer a threat. At least 413 people were killed and more than 600 injured in a spate of intense airstrikes on Monday evening, shattering a fragile truce that took effect on January 19.
The escalation is set to continue with the Israeli government vowing to keep fighting in Gaza until all hostages are released. It comes after talks to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, upon Israel’s demand, failed, with Hamas insisting to move on to the second phase before releasing all the hostages. A permanent ceasefire, Gaza’s future and Hamas’s role were to be discussed after the first phase expired on March 1.
But after the process reached an impasse, a return to fighting was widely anticipated, according to Dubai-based security and defense analyst Riad Kahwaji.
“From the very start, when the agreement in Gaza was reached, there was doubt that Israel would be keen on implementing the second phase. It was widely anticipated that the Israelis would go through the first phase get some hostages out and then go back to war,” the founder of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) told This is Beirut.
“I don’t think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had any intention to discuss Gaza’s future under the 2nd phase. His objective is to keep the war going for many reasons, related to his political career and the position of the extreme right.”
The security expert stressed that Netanyahu is seeking to remove the only pressure card that Hamas holds – the hostages – without giving anything in return. “Israel wants to settle the issue of the hostages once and for all and then have a free hand in Gaza. Netanyahu and the extreme right do not want to discuss the day after. They want to continue the war.”
During the first phase of the truce, Hamas released 33 hostages, including eight deceased, and Israel freed around 1,800 Palestinian prisoners. Of the 251 hostages seized during Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, 58 are still held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
The announcement by the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, led by former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, that it will return to Netanyahu’s coalition government, is a sign that the truce in Gaza could be over.
The far-right party decided to leave Netanyahu’s coalition in January in protest of the ceasefire in Gaza. Ben-Gvir wanted a complete military victory over Hamas, and called for a cut-off of humanitarian aid to Gaza until all hostages were released. He welcomed Israel’s return to intense fighting, saying in a post on X that “it is the right, moral and most justified step.”
Since the beginning of the war, the Israeli army has been executing a scorched earth policy, turning the tiny enclave into an unlivable place. The resumption of the war could be viewed as part of efforts to drive Gazans out.
“Israel’s objective has always been to force Gazans out,” Kahwaji maintains, adding that “now, with a president in the white house saying Gazans should leave, the Israelis are bolstered and the intensity of the bombings is meant to serve this objective as well.”
Retired Army General Khaled Hamadeh underlined Washington’s determination to clip Iran’s wings in the region.
“It is clear that under the new US administration there will be no more room for armed groups or militias linked to Iran, be it in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria.” Hamadeh said, warning Amal and Hezbollah not to deal lightly with the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Israel that provides for the disarmament of the Iran-backed group.
“Hezbollah should acknowledge the fact that Iran can no longer have proxies in the region.”
He explained that while Washington and Tel Aviv agree on Hezbollah’s disarmament south and north of the Litani River as soon as possible, they differ, at least for the moment, on the means or way of implementation.
“Washington is pushing for a settlement of the border disputes through demarcation and Israel’s eventual withdrawal from South Lebanon, ending any excuse for Hezbollah to keep its weapons. This would facilitate the bid of the Lebanese government under the new mandate to dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal. But if it becomes clear that Hezbollah will not give up its arms, I fear we would be witnessing a new round of Israel’s war against Lebanon.”
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