- 08:30
Last week, UAE Diplomatic Adviser Anwar Gargash delivered a message from President Donald Trump to Iran’s leadership, proposing a revival of nuclear negotiations that his administration suspended in 2015. Trump’s message stated, “A deal with Iran is preferable to military action, as I do not seek to harm it.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the proposal, asserting, “We will not negotiate with despotic governments.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded, “Tehran is always ready to negotiate on the nuclear program, provided that Washington lifts the sanctions.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf dismissed the negotiations as a ruse to disarm the country.
In response to Trump’s 100-day initiative, diplomatic sources said Iran opted to escalate tensions in the region to gain leverage to strengthen its negotiating position. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem confirmed that “the resistance remains strong and in the field,” challenging the new government’s resolve to gain sole monopoly on weapons. Moreover, Qassem emphasized that the state must show to the world that Israel would never withdraw from the strategic spots it still occupies in south Lebanon through diplomacy, but through war and resistance.
In Syria, following Hezbollah's reported military restructuring at the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the group, along with its allies and the remnants of the Assad regime, clashed with the Syrian Army to destabilize the country. This served as a message to Trump that his regional involvement would not be easy due to Iran’s considerable influence on stability in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. According to the sources in the so-called “Anti-Peace Axis,” Trump would have to enter the region through Iran’s gate. However, the new leadership in Syria has successfully countered these confrontations, reaffirming that Syria would not return to Iran’s orbit.
After Abdullah Ocalan’s move to dissolve his Kurdish militant PKK, interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa signed an agreement with Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), to integrate all civil and military institutions of the Kurdish autonomous administration into the framework of the new Syrian State. The Sharaa-Abdi agreement, coupled with the Syrian government's swift action against remnants of the former regime, demonstrated that the international community is actively engaged and closely monitoring developments toward peace in the Middle East.
In Yemen, Iran has activated the Houthis (Ansar Allah), which threatened to target Israeli and American ships sailing in the Red Sea. In retaliation, President Trump ordered massive airstrikes on the capital Sana'a. The strikes aimed to reopen the international shipping lanes in the Red Sea while delivering a stern warning to Iran to restrain its influence or face the consequences.
On the Lebanese front, the government is cautiously proceeding with practical steps in the south, in line with the ceasefire agreement and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, particularly regarding the monopoly of weapons by the state, as outlined in President Joseph Aoun’s oath and the government’s policy statement. The current administration avoids any confrontation with Hezbollah, especially since Washington has given Iran a clear timeline for negotiations. Iran must either concede on its nuclear program, ballistic missile system and funding of its proxies, or face a military strike. According to well-informed sources, the outcome of the negotiations—whether positive or negative—will determine the future of Hezbollah’s weapons, which remains the primary obstacle to state-building and the success of the new administration.
Israel’s continued presence in five strategic points in south Lebanon and the establishment of security committees are not intended for direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on normalization, as Hezbollah claims in order to justify its “resistance” and holding on to its weapons. Rather, they aim to address three key issues: demarcating the southern borders, which are already defined and internationally recognized under the 1949 Armistice Agreement, resolving the dispute over the 13 contested border spots and securing Israel’s total withdrawal from the south.
While the administration awaits the outcome of Trump’s initiative toward Iran, Lebanese Forces (LF) and Kataeb Party officials have urged President Joseph Aoun to convene the Supreme Defense Council to implement the clause on the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, and to set a six-month timeline for Hezbollah to surrender its arms. LF sources indicated that the discussion was superficial, as ministers from the Shiite Amal-Hezbollah duo refused to engage, fearing it would escalate into a standoff over the weapons issue, particularly at a time when Iran depends on these arms for its negotiations.
Sources revealed that the push for a timeline to disarm Hezbollah is motivated by Lebanon's desire to clear the path for international aid. If Trump’s initiative with Iran is successful, Hezbollah’s disarming would be settled. If it fails, Washington, with Israel’s backing, will resort to a military solution against Iran. In either case, sources say, the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons will soon be resolved, marking a new chapter for President Aoun’s mandate.
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