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The Pandora’s box that opened in Syria in 2011 is far from closed. After the civil war that broke out 14 years ago, a new phase of tensions has begun in the wake of former President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster and his exile in Russia. On Thursday, fighting intensified across the country, particularly in the west, as supporters of the former regime carried out coordinated attacks against the forces of the new administration led by Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Deadly Clashes along the Syrian Coast

The clashes were concentrated along the Mediterranean coast, particularly in the provinces of Latakia and Tartous, historical strongholds of the Assad regime. The human toll has been heavy. According to recent reports, more than 70 people have lost their lives, and dozens of others have been injured in violent clashes. A curfew has been imposed in these predominantly Alawite regions.

According to local sources, the most aggressive skirmishes erupted along the strategic road linking Aleppo to Latakia, where a Syrian army military convoy was ambushed by pro-Assad groups. In response, elite Syrian defense units were urgently deployed to the coastal region, supported by armored vehicles and military aviation. As ambushes and violent clashes were reported in Jableh (Latakia Governorate), Syrian security forces launched a large-scale operation to neutralize pro-Assad militias, while simultaneously deploying reinforcements to the region.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), around 69 Alawites have been executed by security forces, particularly in al-Shir and al-Mukhtariyah (Latakia). "This situation is the result of the post-regime conjuncture," notes David Rigoulet-Roze, an associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and director of the journal Orients Stratégiques.

According to him, "the summary executions documented by SOHR may have been the trigger for the conflict." Indeed, according to the security chief in Latakia, these executions carried out by the new regime’s forces were "planned and premeditated," which would explain "reprisals by pro-Assad fighters."

Nevertheless, according to a security source, "the ambushes and planned attacks indicate a structured organization among loyalist forces of the former regime, raising questions about the motives and objectives behind this 'insurrection'."

A Premeditated Act?

While the exact nature of these clashes remains difficult to assess, several indicators suggest that these are not isolated incidents, as some observers point out. "The intensity and coordination of the attacks suggest a premeditated plan, possibly orchestrated by figures of the former regime under the 'latent' watch of Bashar al-Assad from Russia, where he is currently residing," according to a security source. The objective? "To destabilize the political transition and maintain military pressure on Ahmad al-Sharaa’s administration," the same source explains.

Other analysts, however, view these violent events as a desperate attempt by the last loyalists of the former regime, who are primarily seeking to disrupt the political transition and preserve what remains of their "influence." In response to this threat, the new Syrian authorities have stated that their operations aim to restore order and national unity while preventing the conflict from escalating into a sectarian struggle.

"It is important to understand that, in the background, there is the highly sensitive issue of Alawite minorities, who were associated with the former regime, even if it was not necessarily a monolithic representation of them, as well as the issue of disarmament," explains Rigoulet-Roze.

According to him, the current situation demonstrates that "the peaceful and orderly transition of regime change is facing both technical (disarmament) and ethno-political challenges (concerns among minorities regarding the new government’s intentions)." These concerns were further exacerbated by an incident that caused tensions within the Kurdish community. In February, the Kurds were not invited to the Syrian national conference held in Damascus, as armed formations were not permitted to attend. This decision implicitly targeted the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military arm of the Kurdish administration, which has been accused of retaining its weapons.

Given the nature of the ongoing clashes, the key question now is whether these battles are merely the beginning of a prolonged conflict or if the interim government will manage to suppress this insurrection and assert its authority over the whole of Syrian territory.