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3. The Anticipated Return of Lebanese-Saudi Relations

Trade relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia have long been prosperous, with Lebanese exports reaching over $800 million per year and Saudi imports totaling $1.3 billion. However, political tensions have severely affected these exchanges, reducing their volume by more than half and causing a considerable loss of revenue for Lebanon. Could the visit of President Joseph Aoun to Riyadh mark the beginning of a new chapter for the long-awaited revival of these bilateral relations?

Saudi Arabia has always been Lebanon's key trade partner. Before relations deteriorated in 2021, Lebanese exports to the Kingdom were substantial, serving as an essential source of revenue and foreign currency injection into Lebanon’s economy. The restoration of normal economic and trade relations between the two countries “should mark a true turning point for the export of Lebanese products to Saudi Arabia,” explained Mohammad Abou Haidar, Director General of the Ministry of Economy, to This is Beirut. He further clarified that “Saudi Arabia accounted for about 10% of Lebanon’s total exports, with annual trade exchanges reaching around $800 million.” According to him, the return to normal relations could allow this figure to double.

“Over the past two years, fertile ground has been prepared for implementing a series of agreements, 22 in total, between Lebanon and the Kingdom,” he stated. These agreements cover multiple sectors, as follows:

1. A trade cooperation agreement between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
2. A cooperation agreement on exhibitions.
3. A cooperation agreement in the field of intellectual property.
4. A cooperation agreement for consumer protection.
5. A cooperation agreement in the grain sector.
6. A cooperation agreement in the fields of environment, agriculture and water.
7. A cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Information.
8. A cooperation agreement in education and higher education.
9. A cultural cooperation agreement in connection with Dar el-Fatwa.
10. A cooperation agreement in the housing sector.
11. An investment cooperation agreement in maritime transport.
12. A mutual recognition agreement for export-related competency certifications.
13. A cooperation agreement for the transport of passengers and goods across land borders.
14. A civil defense cooperation agreement.
15. A judicial cooperation agreement.
16. A cooperation agreement between the Central Bank of Lebanon and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority.
17. An agreement to strengthen technical cooperation in standards, laboratories and quality systems.
18. A customs cooperation agreement.
19. A military defense cooperation agreement.
20. A cooperation agreement to combat terrorism.
21. A cooperation agreement to prevent double taxation and tax evasion.
22. A cooperation agreement between the civil aviation authorities of Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

The primary objective of these agreements—some of which still require legal and logistical finalization—is to support Lebanon in its development path and position it among developed nations.

Abou Haidar estimated that the signing and announcement of these agreements would significantly boost confidence in Lebanon and provide a major stimulus to the economy. This would attract foreign investment, encourage economic growth, create job opportunities, reduce unemployment, improve citizens' purchasing power and open advanced commercial markets for Lebanon. With the reopening of the Saudi market, Lebanon would have the opportunity to increase its exports and pave the way for other markets within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Additionally, an increase in exports would lead to a new influx of strong foreign currencies into the country, thereby helping to revive the banking sector and restore confidence in it—especially through the cooperation agreement between the Central Bank of Lebanon and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. He also emphasized the importance of Saudi and Gulf tourists returning to Lebanon once relations between the two countries normalize. Before the 2021 restrictions, approximately 200,000 Saudi tourists visited Lebanon annually, making them significant consumers in the Lebanese economy. On average, each Saudi tourist spent between $5,000 and $10,000 during their stay in Lebanon. These expenditures included accommodation, dining, leisure and shopping, constituting a significant portion of Lebanon’s tourism revenue.

Saudi Arabia also hosts nearly 250,000 Lebanese expatriates working in diverse fields such as finance, banking, construction, healthcare, media and tourism. In 2023, these expatriates transferred $6.7 billion to Lebanon, representing 30.7% of the country's GDP. This placed Lebanon among the countries with the highest remittance-to-GDP ratios.

It is worth recalling that relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia deteriorated in late 2021 when the then-Minister of Information, Georges Cordahi, criticized Saudi Arabia's involvement in the war in Yemen. In response, the Kingdom decided to suspend all imports from Lebanon. Saudi Arabia no longer saw value in maintaining relations with Lebanon due to “Hezbollah's dominance in the political scene” and “the reluctance of Lebanese leaders to implement necessary reforms.” Trade flows between the two countries were further impacted by the seizure of Captagon pills hidden in Lebanese agricultural shipments bound for the Kingdom.