- 08:30
Since Donald Trump’s rise to power, everything has accelerated. Geopolitical time has sped up. The Middle East, Ukraine... all fronts are moving rapidly.
As if by magic, Donald Trump managed to make the Slavic enemies utter the words “ceasefire” to halt the senseless slaughter after three years of unprecedented violence, reminiscent of the hell of Verdun. Peacekeeping forces, reconstruction, trade agreements... within weeks, the end of hostilities became probable. Simply through the will of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The two men agreed on Ukraine’s future, without necessarily going through the usual negotiation channels. The law of the strongest...
In the Middle East, the American president fully intends to reshape the region’s future after the equally senseless wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Donald Trump’s plans for the day after in Gaza are alarming the Arab world, which is struggling to propose an alternative. In Syria, Tuesday’s Israeli raids and incursions demonstrate a US-backed effort to create a demilitarized belt around Israel—from Gaza to the West Bank, through Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah, militarily defeated, is searching for a political lever for its survival.
And Europe in all this? Stalin once asked about the Vatican, “How many divisions?”
Regarding Ukraine, at best, the 27 EU nations will be invited to deploy peacekeeping troops at their own expense and, to a lesser extent, participate in reconstruction by drawing from their citizens’ pockets, already frustrated from too much war effort financing.
Just weeks ago, Europe’s support for Volodymyr Zelensky was unconditional. The Old Continent is the biggest loser in this global restructuring. It has exited history. In 1945, at the end of World War II, the world was bipolar, divided between the United States and the Soviet Union. This froze the planet into the Cold War until the USSR collapsed. The US became the sole master of the world. But gradually, “empires” tried to fill the void—Iran, Turkey, India—without having the means to take global command.
Europe could have played a major role. But economic unity was not accompanied by political and military momentum. Brexit only worsened the situation. The “disenchantment” with Europe is growing across the continent, as people feel it fails to address their daily concerns. Extremist parties capitalize on the administrative burdens and sometimes absurd directives from Brussels.
Today, alliances are being reshaped: a new world order is emerging, structuring the planet around three poles—the United States, Russia and China. Three great powers with distinct ambitions. Washington, Moscow and Beijing are engaged in a global chess match, where every move redefines the balance of power.
The United States, still the leading military and economic power, seeks to strengthen its influence over the West and the Middle East. Opposing them, Vladimir Putin’s Russia asserts a central role in the new world order, particularly in Eurasia. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s China advances methodically, weaving an economic and diplomatic web across Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Is the world heading toward stabilization around these three poles, or toward a new phase of confrontation? If the previous Yalta led to the Cold War, this new multipolar order is more complex and unpredictable. One thing is certain: the decisions made in Washington, Moscow and Beijing will shape the coming decades.
Meanwhile, for those of us caught in between, we must learn to be agile because, as Nikita Khrushchev once said, “Small countries must learn to dance between the feet of elephants without getting crushed.”
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