- 09:05
There’s an old rule in business: if you keep doing favors for people, they’ll come to expect it, and stop doing the work themselves. That, in a nutshell, is what America’s foreign policy shift under President Donald Trump looks like.
For decades, US allies in Europe and the Middle East have operated under a comfortable assumption: when crises hit, Washington will be there with its checkbook, its troops and its diplomatic muscle. But that assumption is now colliding with a hard reality; one that’s been brewing since the Obama years but is now being spelled out in neon lights: the US is done playing global babysitter.
Trump’s message to NATO is as blunt as a New York real estate deal: “pay up, or you’re on your own.” For years, Washington has warned European allies that their low defense spending was unsustainable. Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said it in 2011. Obama said it during his presidency. But now, Trump is putting muscle behind the words, floating the idea of major US troop cuts in Europe while agreeing to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine’s fate.
The shockwaves in European capitals are real. Ukraine, already battered by war, now faces the possibility that its biggest backer is willing to cut a deal with Moscow. Poland and the Baltic states are scrambling to boost defense budgets. But Western Europe? Mostly incremental changes, as if hoping the storm will pass.
The real question: will Europe step up before it’s too late? If Trump continues down this path, NATO could go from a 75-year-old security blanket to a thin sheet of paper.
This time, the same “handle your problems” doctrine is hitting the Middle East with even higher stakes. Trump’s proposal to relocate Gaza’s two million Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt sent a geopolitical earthquake through the region. Arab governments aren’t just rejecting it, they see it as a direct threat to their own stability. And the message from Washington is clear: if you don’t want this plan, you need to come up with one yourself.
The US has no appetite for another drawn-out intervention. The failures of Iraq, Afghanistan and decades of failed Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts have drained whatever patience remained in Washington. Instead, the expectation is that Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations, will step in to stabilize Gaza, fund reconstruction and find a way to keep the peace.
This is where the real test begins. If the Arab world wants to prevent a worst-case scenario, one where Israel is allowed to take unrestricted military action against Hamas, with the possibility of forcibly displacing Palestinians, then the time for vague statements and symbolic gestures is over. They have the money. They have influence. The question is whether they have the political will to use them.
None of this is happening in a vacuum. The driving force behind America’s shift isn’t just war fatigue — it’s China. Washington sees Beijing, not Moscow or Tehran, as the biggest long-term challenge. The Indo-Pacific is where the real game is being played now. And every dollar, every aircraft carrier and every foreign policy move is being recalibrated with that in mind.
That’s why the US is willing to roll the dice on a European security shake-up. That’s why it’s forcing the Middle East to step up. Because the strategic thinking in Washington is clear: the more time and resources America spends dealing with old conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the less it has to prepare for the real battle ahead: China.
If NATO steps up and takes real responsibility for its own defense, it could emerge stronger and more self-reliant. If Arab states take ownership of the Gaza crisis, they could reshape the region’s power dynamics.
But if they don’t? Then the world might be about to experience something it hasn’t seen in decades: a geopolitical landscape where America is no longer the fixer of last resort.
And if that happens, the next crisis won’t just test US foreign policy, it will test whether the world is ready to handle its own problems without Washington playing referee. Because for the first time in a long time, America’s answer might just be: not our problem.
Comments