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3. What Political Governance for Post-Assad Syria? (1/2)

Sunday, December 8, marks a historic turning point for Syria and, more broadly, for the Middle East. The dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen!

After decades of authoritarian rule, defined by brutal repression and years of devastating civil war, a new chapter of freedom is beginning to unfold. At dawn on Sunday, rebel forces took control of Damascus, forcing the former president to flee overnight to an undisclosed location as his authority crumbled.

This event, heralding a profound political upheaval, raises a critical question: What lies ahead for Syria in the post-Assad era? The focus now shifts to the composition and direction of the regime that will emerge. Understanding this pivotal transition requires a careful examination of the diverse forces at play—opposition groups and rebel factions—and a critical assessment of their goals, differences and ability to build a new order that aligns with the Syrian people's hopes and aspirations.

The Roots of the Syrian Rebellion

To grasp the complexity of the Syrian rebellion's factions, one must look back at 2011, the start of the civil war. Syria, like other nations in the region, was swept up in the Arab Spring, with nationwide protests demanding increased freedoms and social justice. Instead of addressing these demands, Bashar al-Assad’s regime unleashed brutal crackdowns, prompting defections within the Syrian army and the creation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which marked the beginning of the armed uprising.

The rebellion quickly fragmented into numerous factions with divergent goals. Among them were jihadist groups aligned with Al-Qaeda, striving to establish an Islamic caliphate. These included the Islamic State (ISIS or Daesh), which declared a caliphate in 2014 across Syria and Iraq before its collapse in 2019.

Another prominent faction, the Al-Nusra Front, emerged in 2012 as a rival to ISIS. Initially affiliated with Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra played a significant role in the rebellion between 2013 and 2015, conducting high-profile attacks and seizing key territories, including Idlib in 2015 with support from other rebels. In 2016, Al-Nusra severed ties with Al-Qaeda to focus on overthrowing Assad, rebranding itself as Fatah al-Sham. By 2017, it evolved into Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) after merging with other groups, under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Joulani.

HTS and the Fall of Assad

Although classified as a terrorist organization by the United States, HTS rapidly emerged as the leading force in northwestern Syria, particularly in Idlib. Under Abu Mohammad al-Joulani’s command, HTS was instrumental in the swift November 2024 offensive that culminated in Damascus’s fall on December 8, marking the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

In areas under its control, HTS has implemented a governance model less stringent than the one previously enforced by ISIS. This approach has enabled the group to strengthen its influence and position itself as a key player in shaping Syria’s future political framework.

Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, 40, has deliberately distanced himself from traditional Islamist symbols, favoring neutral civilian or non-religious military attire in public appearances, including on American television. Recently, he has adopted a more moderate tone, aiming to rebrand HTS as a legitimate political entity on the global stage. His CNN interview highlighted this strategic pivot.

This recalibration is part of a broader effort to remove HTS from Western terrorist organization lists—a critical step, in al-Joulani’s view, toward gaining political legitimacy in Syria. While US officials remain officially wary of HTS, The New York Times has noted that some within the US government perceive the group’s pragmatic shift as genuine, recognizing its leaders’ understanding that they must shed their jihadist label to claim a role in Syria’s governance.

Despite HTS’s dominance within the Syrian rebel coalition, other opposition factions, including those aligned with Turkey, remain active, further complicating Syria’s already fragmented political environment.

The SNA, a Coalition of Rebel Groups

The Syrian National Army (SNA) also played a significant role in the swift offensive of late November 2024, which led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Formed in 2017, the SNA is a coalition of Syrian rebel groups backed by Ankara as part of its strategy to counter Kurdish influence and weaken the Damascus regime.

Comprising various Islamist and nationalist Syrian factions, the SNA is known for advancing Turkish interests, particularly against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The SNA has also played a critical role in Turkish offensives in northern Syria aimed at securing the border and pushing back Kurdish forces.

Although they did not directly participate in the offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad, the Kurds, backed by the United States, remain a central player in the Syrian conflict.

The Syrian Democratic Forces

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly composed of Kurdish fighters, were instrumental in the fight against the Islamic State group, particularly during the 2014 Battle of Kobane. Following ISIS' defeat, the SDF established control over northeastern Syria, forming the autonomous region of Rojava. Their growing influence in the country has made them a key force in Syria's political equation, requiring them to navigate relations with Syrian rebel groups, either directly or indirectly, given their pivotal role in the country’s political context.

In sum, while the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a decisive turning point for Syria, the path to stable and inclusive governance remains fraught with challenges. The Syrian rebels, bolstered by foreign support, may have achieved the significant milestone of toppling Assad, but their ability to coexist and shape the nation's future hinges on navigating a delicate balance among diverse internal factions and external influences. Kurdish aspirations for autonomy, the enduring presence and ambitions of Islamist groups, and the competing roles of Turkey and the United States are shaping a fragmented political landscape.

However, to fully understand what lies ahead, it is essential to consider the crucial involvement of key regional and international powers including the United States, Russia, Israel, Turkey and Iran. These actors, each driven by distinct and often conflicting interests, will play a decisive role in determining the contours of Syria’s political future.