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3. Syria: Various Indicators of an Imminent Collapse

A new dawn breaks over Syria, liberated from the man who has been known at times as “the tyrant of Damascus,” and at other times as “the executioner.” After the fall of Homs on Saturday night into the hands of opposition rebels, the collapse of Damascus and Bashar al-Assad’s regime was just a matter of hours.

Since the surprise offensive by rebel groups, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham’s chief Abu Mohammad al-Joulani (real name Ahmed Hussein al-Shareh), the signs indicating the end of the Assad regime have steadily increased, following others that had already pointed to a shift in the region’s political dynamics.

Is it possible to argue that the death toll has sounded for the Damascus regime since Hamas' unprecedented operation against Israel on October 7, 2023? Between this offensive, which unleashed hell upon Gaza and Lebanon, and the end of the Assad regime's destructive rule, there is a clear link that many analysts and observers highlighted. This operation marked a turning point in the regional power dynamics, where Iran’s sprawling influence is beginning to fragment and fade in favor of a new emerging axis, in which Turkey seems set to play a central role alongside other powers.

It is widely acknowledged, through reports, that Israeli intelligence services were warned about Hamas' planned attack long before October 2023, with the surprising delayed response of the Israeli military to the unprecedented offensive.

These two factors sparked a wave of commentary at the time, all pointing in the same direction: the October 7 operation would act as a detonator, triggering a process involving several key players.

The rapid succession of events that followed has reinforced this theory, as the foundations of Tehran’s regional house of cards crumbled one after another. First Hamas, then Hezbollah and now Bashar al-Assad. This sequence of events is mainly driven by an international effort to dismantle Iran’s proxies in the region.

The ceasefire agreement that halted the devastating war initiated by Hezbollah’s so-called “support front” for Gaza was particularly significant, as it marked the beginning of the end for the Assads. Under US pressure, Tel Aviv unexpectedly agreed to the truce before achieving its primary objective: to neutralize Hezbollah and ensure the long-term security of its northern borders.

The shift in position by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had remained steadfast in the face of enormous international pressure to accept temporary ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, sparked a wave of anger within Israel. Israeli left-wing media claimed it was the result of the “immunity” he had allegedly requested in Paris, after the International Court of Justice issued an arrest warrant against him. Maybe so. But that was not the only factor. Netanyahu himself clarified this when, in his speech announcing the ceasefire, he stressed that the war with Hezbollah was not over and that he wanted to focus on Iran, before warning Bashar al-Assad, whose country served as a hub for Iranian arms trafficking to Hezbollah, that he was playing with fire.

The Syrian rebels' offensive, backed by Ankara, was launched from Idlib, their stronghold in northwestern Syria, on the very day the ceasefire in Lebanon took effect at 4:00 AM on November 27. What followed was a series of territorial gains, while Russia and Iran, Bashar al-Assad’s allies, showed only shy support. Russia carried out airstrikes against the rebels, which did not hinder their progress, while Iran offered repeated promises of support without taking decisive action.

At the same time, Russian officials claimed they had no plans to rescue Assad, after urging him to “restore order in the Aleppo province” where rebels were advancing. They emphasized that any intervention would be limited due to “other priorities.”

According to Independent Arabia website, the Syrian president traveled to Moscow on Thursday, November 28, but was unable to meet with President Vladimir Putin, whose schedule was allegedly full that day. The site, citing sources close to the Kremlin, reported that security meetings were held in Moscow on Friday and Saturday, during which the decision not to intervene in Syria was reaffirmed “to protect Russia’s interests.”

This concern is said to have motivated Moscow to align with a plan to dismantle Iran’s military influence in the region. Russian representatives were said to have participated in a meeting held several months earlier with American, Israeli and Turkish officials. Arab powers, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, were also included in the discussions.

According to al-Janoubia, a site run by Ali el-Amine, a critic of the Syrian-Iranian axis, another meeting was recently held to prepare for the transitional post-Assad period. Tehran was reportedly involved in this round of discussions, facilitated by Qatar, which is leading these discussions.

However, these signals are just fragmented pieces of a broader process that, while leading to Assad’s fall, still lacks clear boundaries and an ultimate resolution.