As Islamist rebel forces from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) approach the city of Homs, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad desperately needs the help of his Russian and Iranian allies. However, Moscow and Tehran's military resources are already stretched thin due to the war in Ukraine and numerous conflicts in the Middle East.
According to experts interviewed by Bloomberg, Russia does not seem capable or even willing to come to the Syrian government’s aid beyond what is strictly necessary. This is evident in the modest airstrikes carried out by the Russian air force, which have been insufficient to halt HTS’s advance. Moreover, there has been no clear statement from Russia regarding support or the deployment of forces on the ground.
According to a Kremlin source cited by Bloomberg, Russia has no plan to save the Syrian government as lthe Syrian army continues to abandon its positions. The Russian embassy in Damascus has also urged its citizens to leave the country due to the situation.
There are few hopes on the Iranian side as well, despite a military presence on the ground, particularly in Homs. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Friday that he was ready to support President Assad "to the extent necessary" and promised to "consider" troop requests, no concrete decisions have been made yet.
Weakened by ongoing battles with the Israeli army in Lebanon, Hezbollah does not appear to be in a strong position to assist the Syrian army, especially as the ceasefire in Lebanon remains fragile. The best option might be support from Iran-backed militias in Iraq. However, the Iraqi government seems reluctant to intervene on the ground. The influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has also urged the Iraqi government to avoid dragging Baghdad into the Syrian conflict.
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