- 30
- Nov.
- 2024
Despite over 1,200 Hezbollah members killed, among them top leaders, and thousands of fighters injured, an estimated death toll of 3,961, $2.8 billion in housing costs and 99,000 housing units partially or fully destroyed, Hezbollah’s chief Naim Qassem declared “victory.” More important still is the fact that the war the Hezb launched against Israel brought the Israeli Army to Lebanon and pushed his group out of the South.
Until recently, Lebanese rescuers continue to pull bodies from under the rubble.
Counting the costs of war of the Iran-backed party and Israel: human, political, economic and military.
Human Losses
At least 3,961 people have been killed in Lebanon and 16,520 wounded since October 2023, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health as of November 28. The figures do not differentiate between Hezbollah fighters and civilians.
However, Policy and Research Specialist at Information International Mohammad Chamseddine estimates that around 300 to 400 Hezbollah members may still be under the rubble, bringing the actual number of fatalities to approximately 4,500 after search and damage assessment operations are completed. Chamseddine told This is Beirut that he estimates 1,200 members of the Iran-backed party and 3,000 civilians have been killed. The group had reported around 500 fighter deaths during the hostilities until Israel launched its offensive in September 23, but stopped doing so at that point.
Yet, Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, which has deep ties to the military establishment, says Hezbollah has lost a total of 2,450 fighters.
From the Israeli side, Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Moreover, according to the Israeli authorities, at least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights, and in combat in southern Lebanon.
Millions of Dollars in Losses
In Lebanon, the cost of damage to housing is estimated at $2.8 billion, with more than 99,000 housing units partially or fully destroyed, according a World Bank report. The World Bank report estimated damage in agriculture at $124 million, with losses of more than $1.1 billion,
In Israel, Israeli authorities estimate property damage to be at least 1 billion shekels ($273 million), with thousands of homes, farms and businesses damaged or destroyed. Moreover, the Israeli authorities said that “about 55,000 acres of forestry, nature reserve, parks and open lands in northern Israel and the Golan heights have been burnt down since the start of the war.”
Political Damage
On the political level, “it can be said that Hezbollah, above all, has lost its regional backing,” retired Army general and director of Regional Forum Consultancy and Studies (RFSC) Khaled Hamade said.
He stated that “Iran has effectively exited Lebanon as a state with an armed proxy.” In his opinion, the ceasefire agreement that ended the war and was signed and accepted by the Lebanese government — and which Hezbollah adhered to — ends in fact this group’s military ambitions.”
“In other words, Hezbollah, as an Iranian proxy that maintained direct confrontation lines with Israel along the southern border, has been removed from this equation. Consequently, Iran has been excluded from the regional equation as a state that once had a shared frontier with Israel in southern Lebanon. Through Hezbollah, Iran had leveraged this border as a point of contact with the United States. This was less about Lebanon-Israel relations and more about an Iran-Israel confrontation,” Hamade added.
He underscored that the agreement will “not only lead to Hezbollah's disarmament and its exit as a militia from southern Lebanon but also places the area south of the Litani River under international tutelage, with the presence of 10,000 troops from the Lebanese Army, UNIFIL forces and an international committee headed by the United States.” He explained that “while the area south of the Litani remains geographically Lebanese, all developments there, including the future of oil and gas resources, will be under US supervision.” Furthermore, “the US’ insistence on rebuilding southern Lebanon’s infrastructure implies uncovering everything Hezbollah had concealed underground. Thus, Hezbollah has lost its military role and political cover, effectively reducing its status to that of an ordinary party — perhaps even weaker than others due to its strained relationships with most political factions, its history as an armed militia and its role in fostering corruption, violating borders, establishing an illicit economy and engaging in regional conflicts,” Hamade added.
In Israel, analysts consider that the deal offers a chance to achieve the security it has long sought over the past two decades, along its northern border, through the meaningful enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The failure to enforce this resolution in the past directly contributed to the current situation, allowing Hezbollah to receive advanced weaponry from Iran and use the area south of the Litani River as a staging ground and storage site for the weapons now being fired at Israel and posing a threat to its security.
Economic Cost for Hezbollah
Hamade considered that “this could arguably be Hezbollah’s greatest loss, as it undermines its role within its base. The network of salaries and services it once provided to tens of thousands of employees through its institutions — medical facilities, Qard al-Hassan, security or economic institutions — is collapsing, crippling the economy that sustained it.
Additionally, the Lebanese Army’s upcoming border control will cut off smuggling routes that were key to Hezbollah’s finances, from drug trafficking to arms trading. Even its influence at official border crossings is waning, depriving it of illicit financial resources and the ability to rebuild its economic framework.
Armament No Longer Available
“Regardless of whether Hezbollah retains a significant or limited stockpile of weapons, these will no longer be available for the establishment of a new militia,” Hamade affirmed. He pointed out that “under the terms of this agreement, Lebanon is now under international scrutiny and must comply with its terms, with the international committee closely monitoring its implementation. Therefore, Hezbollah will not have the opportunity to reconstitute its militia,” he said.
Hamade emphasized that in the future, “there will be no security enclaves or exclusive zones in any area. Consequently, individuals in Hezbollah’s base who previously relied on the party’s protection — whether willingly or reluctantly — will gradually come to accept that no region will enjoy special status moving forward.”
According to foreign media, Israel’s Ministry of Finance estimated the cost of keeping reservists ready could reach $1.36 billion this year.
Early in the Gaza war, Israel’s Ministry of Finance said operations were costing $246 million a day. The intensity of fighting in Lebanon, including air and ground operations, is greater.
Fragile Ceasefire
The long-awaited ceasefire took effect at 4 AM local time on November 26, bringing to a close — for now — a thirteen-month conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. However, the ceasefire remains inherently fragile, and there is a large dose of skepticism in Lebanon that it will hold. Even within hours of the ceasefire taking effect, Israeli soldiers were firing warning shots at a vehicle Israel said was carrying “suspects” in a “restricted zone.” Such incidents are recurrent since then.
The ceasefire agreement calls for a sixty-day cessation of hostilities, during which Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its forces to north of the Litani river, which runs anywhere between twenty-seven and three kilometers from the Lebanon-Israel border.
The Curtain Falls
As residents return to their leveled homes in a winter that offers no warmth, mourning the loss of their family members, the curtain falls on the war, the party and Iran, which has held Lebanon hostage for far too long.
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