Israel's announcement on Thursday of the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and a significant figure within the organization, marks a pivotal moment following over a year of a devastating conflict in Gaza.
With Yahya Sinwar's passing, several names have surfaced as potential successors within the Hamas leadership. These leaders have all played crucial roles in building the movement's military and political power, and their succession to Sinwar could shape the future of the ongoing conflict.
Hamas stands at a pivotal moment now, grappling with a void in leadership that carries profound implications for its future plans and tactics, and for the outcome of the ongoing conflict. Sinwar's central role in planning the unprecedented October 7, 2023, assault on Israel had cemented his status as a prime target. His demise is a significant setback for the group.
Who are the main potential candidates to succeed Sinwar at the helm of the Islamist movement?
Khalil al-Hayya
Based in Doha, al-Hayya led Hamas’s negotiating team for hostage-ceasefire talks under the supervision of Ismail Haniyeh until the latter’s assassination in Tehran. Moreover, he has been at the helm of reconciliation discussions with Fatah in past years.
Many experts had seen al-Hayya as a leading candidate to replace Haniyeh. This is due partly to his good relationship with Iran, whose support will be necessary for Gaza’s reconstruction after the war.
He was a close deputy to Sinwar, but if he were to ascend to leadership, it’s possible Hamas could opt for diplomacy.
Khaled Meshaal
Khaled Meshaal became known around the world in 1997 after Israeli agents injected him with poison in a failed assassination attempt in Amman, Jordan.
Born in the West Bank in 1956, Meshaal is considered one of the founders of Hamas.
Based in Qatar, Meshaal visited the Gaza Strip for the first time in 2012. He was head of Hamas’ political bureau from 1996 until 2017, when he was succeeded by Ismail Haniyeh. He then became the group's political bureau chief abroad.
Moussa Abou Marzouk
Moussa Abou Marzouk is a member of Hamas’ political bureau who previously served as its deputy chair under Khaled Meshaal. Mousa Abou Marzouk could offer a different leadership style than that of Sinwar, given his past at the political bureau and involvement in the group's operational decisions.
Marzouk began his political career in the United Arab Emirates, where he helped establish a branch of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood. He is a founding member of the Islamic University in Gaza. He faces legal challenges in the United States, where he was detained by the FBI. However, Marzouk's influence within Hamas remains substantial.
Mohammad Sinwar
Another strong contender is Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya's brother. The lesser known Sinwar played a significant role in Hamas' military activities.
Navigating under the radar for years, he is considered to have been instrumental in the planning and execution of the October 7 attacks. He is on Israel’s most wanted list and has evaded multiple assassination attempts. The little information available on him suggests that his leadership would continue in the same aggressive line as that of his brother, potentially closing the door to any peace negotiations.
The choice of the next leader will not only determine the group's strategies and tactics but also shape the broader dynamics of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as well as that of the region as a whole.
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