According to US officials interviewed by Axios, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering a post-war plan for Gaza, based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which would be presented after the US presidential election.
In July, Brett McGurk, President Biden’s top Middle East advisor, and State Department official Tom Sullivan met in Abu Dhabi with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed to discuss the plan.
The Emirati plan proposes deploying a temporary international mission to Gaza that would provide humanitarian aid, restore public order, and lay the groundwork for governance. The UAE suggested sending troops as part of an international force, but conditioned this on receiving an official invitation from the Palestinian Authority, which would first need to undergo "significant reforms and be led by a new, independent, and empowered prime minister."
The plan is also based on a political agreement to pursue a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. Israeli officials say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports many aspects of the Emirati plan but opposes the more political elements, particularly the involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the two-state solution vision.
Two senior State Department officials told Axios that if Blinken presents a plan, it will incorporate ideas from Israel, the UAE, and the US, aiming to build broader regional consensus. "We will not support a post-war plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. The exact shape of that role is still being discussed," a State Department official said.
However, the plan is still a subject of debate among US officials. Some in the White House and State Department are concerned that the plan would sideline Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, a move that Israel and the UAE support for now.
Without an agreement in place to release hostages held by Hamas or establish a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a "next day" plan could be a positive element of the Biden administration’s legacy regarding the conflict. Some at the State Department, including Blinken, believe that a hostage deal or ceasefire is unlikely before the end of Biden's term, making the Israeli-Emirati plan a possible "Plan B" to start charting a path out of the war, according to US officials.
However, other officials within the State Department argue that the plan is misguided, serving only the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and is likely to be rejected by Palestinians, thus destined to fail.
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