- 16:00
Hezbollah's deputy general secretary claims that victory is… near! The suffering of refugees is viewed as part of the sacrifice for the "Palestinian cause," morale is high, and the Israelis are in near disarray. Meanwhile, officials on the other side of the border are informing residents in the north that they will soon be able to return home. Who should we believe? In fact, no one. The stakes are such that no one is truly in control of the situation.
Beirut airport has become a hub of misfortune, with people storming planes to leave the country, foreigners being evacuated by their governments, and the constant flow of medical aid.
This is the fate of Lebanon: 1.2 million displaced people, widespread destruction, and over 2,000 reported deaths. The emergency plans crafted by the government exist only in theory and are completely inadequate for the situation. Lebanese MPs engage in futile discussions to determine who will be the next president, but despite the ongoing war, there is no national unity or significant progress being made. We're told that now isn’t the right time for such decisions. As for a ceasefire, the timing seems equally inappropriate. International diplomacy is limited to humanitarian efforts. What will happen next?
Seemingly, Iran isn't ready to let go of its Lebanese political asset, despite the (very) minimal support Tehran is offering its proxies. Within the Shia community (and beyond), some hesitant voices are starting to question whether this concept of a united front was truly such a brilliant idea. After all, contrary to what the architects of this philosophy might claim, the salvation of Gaza isn't exactly clear. The destruction of Lebanon, however, is painfully evident.
At this point, you might ask: what is the answer to my question, namely, what will happen next? The principle of Occam's razor, which suggests favoring the simplest explanation when faced with competing hypotheses, applies in this case.
It is highly likely that the situation will worsen.
There is a strong possibility that the Israelis will eventually launch a ground offensive. Equally likely is that Lebanese leaders will be unable to elect a president, which would be the very least they can do. Churchill promised his people "blood, toil, tears, and sweat," offering them victory over Nazi barbarism. The problem is that the region is full of individuals in turbans or suits who see themselves as the reincarnation of Churchill, but none possess his caliber. The Lebanese have had enough of blood and tears.
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